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fxus63 kpah 281143 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
643 am CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

issued at 643 am CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Updated for the 12z aviation tafs.


Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 244 am CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

A cold front near the Ohio River early this morning will continue
southward and clear most if not all of the forecast area by midday/early
afternoon. Will maintain pops across the southeast part of the forecast area early
this morning and across mainly the southern pennyrile into the
afternoon given the close proximity of the front. By this evening
the air mass transition...even in the southeast part of the forecast area...will
bring an end to any rain chances. The major upper pattern shift
will occur as a 500mb low drops southeast out of the western Great Lakes
region and into the upper Ohio Valley by this evening. A strong
surface high pressure center will follow...building into the forecast area
from the Great Lakes/upper Midwest region this weekend.

Skies will clear through the day today with clear skies across the
forecast area by this evening. Northerly winds will drop dewpoints to around 60
tonight across the north and into the mid 60s across the south with
similar low temps. North to NE winds will continue over the weekend
with the surface high to our north. Bottom line is that the much
advertised unseasonably mild weekend is firmly in tact given the
synoptic weather pattern. Max temps will be in the lower to mid
80s even with abundant sunshine. Lows by Saturday night will be
in the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 244 am CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

The first part of the long term period continues to look quiet with
not much going on weather-wise in terms of precipitation.

A large sprawling surface high pressure system will be situated over
much of the eastern U.S. At the start of the week. The dry and
cooler airmass which will be over the region for the weekend will
slowly start to moderate as we work through the week. We never
really get a southerly fetch established over the region, so the
rise will be slow and we should stay in the mid to upper 80s during
the period. As such, humidity levels will be also slow to rise,
with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 60s early but rising
into the mid to upper 60s later in the week.

As far as precipitation chances, the beginning of the week continues
to be dry. However, as the sfc High Breaks down, we start to get
back into a summertime pattern. There continues to be questions as
to if there is enough moisture and forcing to warrant chances for
rain on Wednesday. Models continue to be wishy washy on quantitative precipitation forecast so
believe if anything forms, it should be mainly isolated. On
Thursday, the GFS/Canadian are indicating an upper level system
moving south which may push a weak front into the area that may
provide a better focus and moisture for convection. Still keeping
pops low for now.


issued at 643 am CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Showers have all but ended in the vicnity of kevv and kowb and
expect any lingering sprinkles to end in the next couple hours.
Expect IFR cigs at kevv and kowb to become MVFR after 14z with
MVFR cigs at kcgi and kpah becoming VFR in a similar time frame.
Vsbys should improve to VFR through mid morning as well with
increasing northerly winds to about 10 knots. There is a small
chance of a shower this afternoon at kevv and kowb as upper level
low pressure moves S across the area. Otherwise expect clear
skies and unrestricted vsbys by this evening at all sites.


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