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fxus63 kpah 232242 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
542 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

issued at 540 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Updated aviation discussion for 00z taf issuance.


Short term...(tonight through Wednesday night)
issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A much cooler pattern will remain established for the most part
of the near term as a chilly batch of Canadian air works its way
south through the plains and into the lower Ohio Valley region
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Not expecting much on the way of precip
with the surge of chilly air, but there will likely be a
considerable amount of cloud cover rotating southward into the
forecast area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temperatures Tue
afternoon will stay in the 50s to near 60 most areas. Though
surface temps could fall into the mid 30s at some locations later
Tuesday night, thinking right now is that surface winds and
delayed clearing will preclude a major frost threat. Wednesday
will be a cool and rainfree day as weak high pressure aloft moves
toward the region. Winds shifting more swly by Wednesday night
should result in slightly milder temperatures.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

High confidence in a cold front moving through Thursday night into
Friday morning. Lower confidence in precip chances with the frontal
passage and the exact timing.

Models are in decent agreement that there will be a frontal passage
on Friday but the timing remains a discrepancy. The GFS has the
front passing across the area before sunrise Friday morning with
Post-frontal precipitation forming in our eastern counties Friday
afternoon and quickly exiting the area during the evening hours. The
European model (ecmwf) is in sharp contrast bringing the front through the area
during the day on Friday and developing generous amounts of quantitative precipitation forecast
overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Soundings however do not
support this as there is too much dry air aloft. Forecast shows
somewhat of a blend of these two models leaning toward the drier and
faster GFS.

Western areas may see some scattered frost Saturday morning behind
the front with temperatures hovering in the lower 30s. Eastern areas
will still have clouds and precipitation moving out with
temperatures closer to 33 to 34 degrees. The entire region will
see a good chance of frost/freeze Saturday night as temperatures
drop into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees under a clear sky.
Sunday night lows still drop down into the middle 30s so scattered
frost will again be possible by Monday morning. High temperatures
will top out around 70 degrees in advance of the front on
Thursday and drop to below normal readings in the 50s through the


issued at 540 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Satellite/radar/obs overlay shows main body of pcpn rotating on
outside terminal vicinity, however, spotty redevelopment picked up
and verified by short res modeling may still impact mainly
northern terminals early this evening. Otherwise anticipate
altering scattered to broken mainly mid level bases (vfr) thru the
night. Gridded time/height cross sections suggest a diurnally
based base scattered in the morning, becoming broken/with cigs in
the PM hours, 4-6k feet above ground level tmrw along with gusty west to


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