Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 171143
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
543 am CST Fri Nov 17 2017
LIFR to IFR conditions will quickly improve through
14-15z this morning, as low clouds and light fog
dissipate. A gusty southwest wind will decrease this
evening as a cold front approaches. As the front moves
across Oklahoma and North Texas between 8-12z, very strong
northerly winds will develop.
Previous discussion... /issued 322 am CST Fri Nov 17 2017/
a rather shallow moist layer, especially across western Oklahoma,
will result in a quick erosion of low clouds and fog early this
morning. Farther east, clouds will remain through the mid to
perhaps late morning.
Later today, near-record to record high temperatures are expected
with a breezy southwest wind. The very warm weather will combine
with low afternoon humidity, to create elevated to near-critical
fire weather conditions. Near red flag conditions may develop for
a few hours near the Texas and Oklahoma border this afternoon,
however, high clouds may limit mixing some, especially across
northern Oklahoma. With erc values near average, will not issue a
red flag warning for far western Oklahoma or North Texas.
Late this evening and mainly overnight, a strong cold front will
move across much of Oklahoma and North Texas. Strong cold advection
behind the front will result in strong wind gusts perhaps in the
50-55 mph range. The strongest winds are expected across western
Oklahoma, but most areas will experience at least 40 mph gusts, so
a Wind Advisory will be issued for the entire forecast area.
Although temperatures will be much cooler Saturday, low afternoon
humidity and gusty winds will certainly elevate fire weather
Lighter winds can be expected Saturday night into Sunday, but will
increase again from the south by Monday. The gusty winds on
Monday will again elevate fire weather concerns as afternoon
humidity levels will be rather low.
Another front will push across the Southern Plains on Tuesday, but
little if any rain will occur with the frontal passage.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 79 51 56 33 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 84 52 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 83 56 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 83 45 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 78 47 56 30 / 20 0 0 0
Durant OK 78 60 62 37 / 20 10 0 0
OK...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Saturday for
Texas...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Saturday for