Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 241939
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
239 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
the forecast challenge is determining rain chances over the next
Through tonight, lowered/removed rain chances across much of the
area. Only kept 20% in far western Oklahoma and far western North
Texas (towards 100 degrees west longitude and points west) after
midnight where a few weak showers and thunderstorms could occur
due to weak mid level isentropic lift. Otherwise, think the lack
of deep moisture should keep much, if not all, of Oklahoma and
North Texas rainfree tonight. The 12 UTC nam12 appeared to be way
too wet, initializing with widespread rainfall today over the
Texas Panhandle which did not materialize at all. With less cloud
cover, lowered overnight lows tonight due to increased
radiational cooling and light surface winds. Lows are generally
forecast to be around 10f degrees below average for this time of
year. Patchy fog may form near and south of Red River where the
heaviest rainfall fell earlier today, leaving slightly higher
surface dewpoints (mid 60s) in place, but did not mention due to
low confidence of occurrence, especially as some sunshine will
evaporate ground moisture late this afternoon.
Sunday, kept low rain chances, generally 20-30% across western
Oklahoma and western North Texas due to some mid level
isentropic lift and some mid level moisture. Not sure about
rain coverage due to the weak lift, limited instability (mucape
generally below 1000 j/kg), and limited low level moisture.
Believe any rainfall should be light. Increasing mid level clouds
could occur across much of the area. However, preferred the warmer
side of model guidance highs thinking some sun will occur,
especially early in the day.
Sunday night through Tuesday, kept low rain chances across much of
the area due to continued weak mid level isentropic lift in a
northwest mid/upper flow pattern and sufficient nearby moisture.
Have low confidence on when, where, and if rain occurs. Think any
rainfall should remain light and rather spotty with most
locations staying dry. Temperatures and low level moisture should
slowly increase each day.
Wednesday and Thursday, breezy to windy conditions and warmer
temperatures are expected. This may elevate fire weather
conditions, especially where recent rainfall has been limited.
Rain chances appear to be very low to near zero due to increasing
capping/700 mb temperatures.
Late Thursday through Saturday, latest models have been suggesting
that rain chances may increase during this time frame with the
approach of a weak cold front and mid/upper trough. Due to
increasing moisture and instability, locally heavy rainfall and
some strong to perhaps severe storms may be possible. Not
confident that widespread rainfall will occur.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 60 83 61 86 / 10 10 10 10
Hobart OK 61 79 63 85 / 10 30 30 20
Wichita Falls Texas 65 83 65 85 / 10 20 20 20
gage OK 58 79 62 84 / 10 30 30 20
Ponca City OK 57 85 61 85 / 10 10 10 10
Durant OK 66 87 66 85 / 0 10 10 10