Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 221132 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
532 am CST Mon Jan 22 2018
22/12z tafs. MVFR conditions are expected across northern Oklahoma
as moisture rotates around Kansas storm system. VFR cigs will
likley extend farther south into central Oklahoma for several
hours 17z to 21z time frame. Strong and gusty northwest winds
expected regionwide, with winds decreasing quickly toward and
after 00z. For the 12z issuance, chances of precipitation making
it south of the Kansas border too low for mention in terminals.
Previous discussion... /issued 341 am CST Mon Jan 22 2018/
strong northwest winds will be the main impacts with the weather
today. We will be extending the Wind Advisory a little farther south
and east to include the okc Metro. Winds sustained near 30 mph and
gusts near or in excess of 40 mph are expected. The strongest winds
will be confined to northern and west-central parts of Oklahoma, the
the strong winds last the longest across north-central Oklahoma
around Enid and Ponca City. Winds are expected to subside quickly
this evening. Although it will still be a windy day across southern
Oklahoma and western North Texas, winds should stay below our Wind
Advisory criteria, 30+ sustained and/or frequent 40+ gusts.
As far as potential for some wrap around precipitation today across
far northern Oklahoma, we will leave the forecast dry with this
issuance. There will be plenty of clouds across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of Oklahoma, especially late this morning through mid-afternoon,
but chances of precipitation should stay north of the Kansas border.
Trend of both the GFS and ecm is to limit westward extent of rain
potential late in the week. Progd storm system is now evolving more
open and progressive which will keep deep layer flow veered,
limiting westward extent for needed moisture. Pops were trimmed a
bit and lowered outside of southeast Oklahoma for Thursday night
through Friday night.
fire danger statement will be issued for the areas covered by the
Fire Weather Watch. Although we could have some initial attack
type activity farther north and east, temperatures near average in
the lower 50s and colder and relative humidity values near and above 40 percent
should prevent any significant fire control problems.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 51 28 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 52 24 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 57 28 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 49 24 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 46 25 51 26 / 10 0 0 0
Durant OK 56 32 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for okz019>030-034-035-
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for okz004>018.