Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 162253
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
553 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
..updated aviation discussion...
for the 00z tafs:
VFR conditions will prevail. Light south-southeast winds may veer
(become more southerly) toward morning up to around 30 degrees
difference in direction. The best chance of ~20 knot gusts will
be at southwest Oklahoma sites during the warmest part of the day
Previous discussion... /issued 326 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/
quiet weather will continue in the short term as west/northwest
mid-level flow and rather dry airmass will result in cool mornings
and mild days.
By late Wednesday into Thursday an amplifying trough will develop
across the southwest and we will begin to see an increase in Gulf
moisture. Not out of the question to see a few showers across the
area as we go through the day on Friday as the trough moves
through the Southern Plains.
Main trough will then move out into the plains late Saturday with
an associated surface cold front. Models differ as to warm sector
precip development across the area on Saturday with GFS more
aggressive than ECMWF, will maintain low pops areawide Saturday.
Front is expected at this time to move into northwest Oklahoma and
will keep some higher pops in that area. Convection is expected to
become more widespread as we go through Saturday night. Some
severe storms seem possible along with localized heavy rainfall.
At this point the models differ as to the evolution of the upper
trough, but both limit precip chances to far southeast by Sunday.
Much like the last front, could see a period of strong winds
behind the front, followed by quick clearing of the skies and
cooler temps for second half of weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 68 43 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 69 42 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 70 43 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 71 43 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 68 42 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 71 44 74 46 / 0 0 0 0