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fxus64 koun 231027 
afdoun

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
527 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Discussion...
12z taf discussion.

&&

Aviation...
will include some lingering tsra at wwr/okc/oun as convection has
been slow to shift east out of the area. Wind directions will be
difficult today with multiple surface boundaries from overnight
storms.

Expect to see additional storm development late today which could
impact okc/oun/law/sps taf sites. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR
conditions outside of brief MVFR during heavier thunderstorms.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 357 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018/

Discussion...
main concerns continue to be with regards to severe weather both today
and Sunday.

Mesoscale convective system continues to make its way southeast across the area this
morning. We also continue to see convection developing as far west
as the Oklahoma Panhandle. Will need to make some last minute
decisions on placement of precip chances this morning based on
latest trends.

This mesoscale convective system and other residual convection will lay out one or likely
more low level boundaries that will play a role in how the
scenario plays out today. Best guess at this time is that main low
level boundary will set up somewhere near the I-40 corridor or
slightly farther north. Expect some convection during the day may
impact this location as well. By late this afternoon, more robust
convection is expected to develop, with best chances initially
across eastern half of Oklahoma. These storms will have favorable
instability and wind fields for supercell thunderstorms capable of
very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm interaction with
said boundary could result in some tornado threat as well. These
storms will gradually develop south and southwest across much of
southern Oklahoma and into western North Texas this evening.

A larger trough will swing out of the central rockies on Sunday
with a large complex of storms developing across Nebraska
southward across Kansas and into parts of Oklahoma. Again severe
storms are expected.

One more round of storms appears likely by late Monday and Monday
night as a shortwave rotates around the main larger scale trough
across the plains. As this occurs showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop southward along a surface front that will be
located across the area.

Models then want to try and build mid-level ridge out into the
Southern Plains by the mid/late week time frame bringing drier and
warmer conditions to the area.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 88 70 92 75 / 30 40 10 20
Hobart OK 95 72 98 75 / 20 20 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 101 73 99 77 / 10 50 0 0
gage OK 87 70 94 68 / 20 10 30 60
Ponca City OK 88 71 88 73 / 20 10 20 70
Durant OK 94 76 93 76 / 30 50 10 0

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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