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fxus64 koun 210916 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
316 am CST Tue Feb 21 2017

main focus is on the potential fire weather conditions over the next
several days.

A sfc trough will continue to move across the rest of the area this
morning shifting winds to the northwest. Ahead of this trough, dense fog
has developed across portions of central, south central, and
southeast OK. As this trough moves into these areas bringing
slightly stronger northwest winds and drier air, visibilities are expected
to improve with dense fog expected to hang on the longest in the far
southeast. A dense fog advisory was issued earlier but with the scenario
described above the advisory could/will likely need to be canceled
early for portions of the advisory area when visibilities improve.

Winds will shift back towards the south later today. Warm/hot
temperatures are expected through Thursday with highs in the 70s and
80s. Models show a trough moving into the central U.S. Later this
week with a 500mb low developing and moving into the upper Midwest
by Saturday. This system will cause a cold front to move across the
region Thursday night bringing cooler air to the area which will
knock temperatures back down closer to normal for this time of year.
In fact, below freezing temperatures will be possible Fri night/Sat
morning across a good portion of the fa.

Southerly winds will return Sunday with temperatures warming into
early next week. Models differ as to whether there will be rain in
the fa Sunday night into Monday due to some warm air advection.
Currently, have low chances in far southeast portions of the fa but right
now it looks like most of the area will remain dry.

Fire weather...
elevated to possibly critical wildfire conditions are expected
through at least Friday, mainly across portions of western Oklahoma
and western North Texas. The critical conditions would be possible
on Thursday. Warm/hot temperatures will combine with low humidities
today and Wednesday to cause elevated conditions. However, winds are
expected to remain relatively light the next couple of days
preventing conditions from approaching critical levels. Thursday
will have the temperatures and low humidities (10-20%) but with
stronger SW to west winds leading to possibly critical conditions.
There is some question on how strong the winds will be Thursday
afternoon but right now it looks like could be 15-25 mph with gusts
to 35 mph. In addition to these conditions, a wind shift to the northwest
behind a cold front Thursday night could have implications to any
ongoing fires. Elevated wildfire conditions will be possible on
Friday as well in portions of western North Texas.

With winds expected to be fairly light today and erc-g values likely
around the daily average, will not issue a rfd at this time, but if
winds end up a little bit stronger today and/or erc-g values come in
a bit higher this morning then a rfd may need to be issued. Rfds at
least will likely be needed over the next few days with a fire wx
watch/red flag warning possible on Thursday. With uncertainties will
hold off on a watch for Thursday for now.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 73 45 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 75 42 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 73 45 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 76 42 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 73 42 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 73 48 79 52 / 0 0 0 0


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for okz020-026-


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