Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 230022
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
622 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017
VFR conditions will prevail with variable high
clouds. The wind will be relatively light tonight then
increase during the day Thursday. A cold front will enter
northwestern Oklahoma after 23z Thursday.
Previous discussion... /issued 240 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/
fire weather is the main concern with this forecast. There will
be two main days of concern: Thursday (tomorrow) and next
Tuesday. Friday's winds will also be a concern, but the cooler
weather will help.
For tomorrow, we expect low pressure to the northwest to cause
brisk west winds across western Oklahoma and part of western North
Texas. In this area, afternoon relative humidities will generally
range from about 8% to 20%. Farther east, winds will be more
southerly, and afternoon relative humidities will be somewhat
higher. The entire region will be very warm by February standards,
with some sites possibly breaking record maximum temperatures for
the date. With all this in place, we have decided to upgrade the
entire Fire Weather Watch to a red flag warning. In addition,
Major County now joins the rfw, and the rest of our area has been
placed in a Fire Weather Watch, because of marginal conditions and
a recent history of fires occurring.
Cooler weather will move into the region for Friday, and most of
our forecast area will probably see a freeze. Then, temperatures
will begin to rise again, reaching well above average by Tuesday.
Winds look like they will be quite strong on Tuesday, accompanied
once again by dry and warm conditions, leading to a widespread
higher-than-average risk of wildfires, with some "extremely
critical" areas quite possible, mainly along our western border.
Some rain will be possible from Sunday into early next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 51 82 42 58 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 50 84 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 51 87 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 47 81 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 48 80 40 53 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 52 82 51 66 / 0 0 0 0
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for okz006>008-012-013-017>020-023>032-038>048-
Red flag warning from 10 am to 9 PM CST Thursday for okz004-005-
Texas...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for txz086-089-090.
Red flag warning from 10 am to 9 PM CST Thursday for txz083>085-