Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 230947
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
347 am CST Thu Nov 23 2017
A light southwest to west wind is expected today with VFR
conditions. The wind will become more southerly by early evening,
but will remain light.
Previous discussion... /issued 310 am CST Thu Nov 23 2017/
The wind will remain light today, but with a downslope component,
temperatures will warm well into the 60s and 70s.
A rather high amplitude ridge over the western U.S. Will
temporarily flatten, as a system moves quickly across the
Pacific northwest. The main result will be an increase in surface
winds across the Southern Plains, along with rather thick high
clouds. Temperature Friday afternoon will average 5 to 7 degrees
warmer than today. This combined with much stronger winds will
elevated fire weather conditions.
A cold front will move across Oklahoma and North Texas late Friday
through early Saturday. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees
cooler behind the front Saturday afternoon, but will still be
Sunday will be a transition day back to southerly winds, as surface
high pressure builds east and a Lee trough develops.
Models still differ on the timing of another cold front early next
week, with the GFS much quicker. The European model (ecmwf) is more amplified and
slower with a trough that approaches the area around Tuesday.
Will go with a blend for now, but lean slightly with the faster
solution. Unfortunately this will result in little if any
precipitation for most of the area.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 68 46 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 72 45 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 69 45 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 75 43 77 41 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 67 45 74 44 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 64 43 72 46 / 0 0 0 0