Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1047 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016
There is no significant change tonight through tomorrow, as
compared with the last several days. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected tonight in northwest Oklahoma and most anywhere in the
state Sunday afternoon. Winds will remain generally light from
the S/southeast (well outside thunderstorms, of course) through the
Previous discussion... /issued 903 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016/
nearly all the earlier convection has dissipated. However, a
persistent area of storms over far northwest Oklahoma is shown as
continuing through the night by some short-range computer models.
With the weak forcing and moist atmosphere, it is difficult to
determine where any convective activity may occur or persist. With
this in mind, we have updated the forecast to reflect the current
trends, model outlooks, and uncertainty for the rest of tonight.
Otherwise, the warm and humid conditions with light southeast
winds will continue through the rest of the night.
Previous discussion... /issued 655 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016/
the 00z aviation discussion follows....
there is no significant change tonight through tomorrow, as
compared with the last several days. Scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms will continue, and there may be more persistent
rain/storms in far northwest Oklahoma, around kgag and kwwr
overnight. Winds will remain generally light from the S/southeast
(well outside thunderstorms, of course) through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 251 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016/
diurnal moist convection continues to develop across portions of
central OK and western North Texas this afternoon. Other storms where
located across the northern Texas Panhandle. Most of the activity
over central OK and west North Texas will come to an end after sunset.
However, a subtle mid level shortwave trough, currently supporting
the activity across the panhandles, will move near northwest OK so expect
low chance pops to continue there late tonight. A few showers and
storms may also continue across southeast OK near a mid to upper shear
axis associated with the mid to upper low near East Texas.
Over the next several days, at least some diurnal convection is
expected as we remain on the fringe of the upper ridge and a mid
to upper trough to our west only slowly progresses east out of
the southern rockies. The highest pops will remain west of i35 and
mainly across northwest OK in association with this feature. By late in
the week, chances will decrease as the ridge tries to move over
the Southern Plains but with abundant moisture remaining in place
and our region remaining near the northern fringe of the ridge,
suspect at least schc pops each afternoon for a portion of our
County Warning Area. Overall, it appears temperatures will remain near or below
average through the forecast period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 70 89 71 91 / 10 20 20 20
Hobart OK 69 90 70 90 / 20 30 20 30
Wichita Falls Texas 70 91 72 92 / 20 20 20 20
gage OK 66 87 67 88 / 80 40 30 40
Ponca City OK 70 89 71 90 / 30 30 20 30
Durant OK 70 91 73 94 / 10 30 20 30