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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
617 am CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

Aviation...
tafs 2112/2212...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A northerly wind
today will become southeast this evening and overnight. High
clouds will also increase from the west during late afternoon and
evening.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 324 am CDT Thu Mar 21 2019/

Discussion...

Quiet weather is expected today ahead of our next weather system
that is currently moving into California. A wind shift will move
south across the area early this morning, with winds becoming
northerly behind it. There won't be an affect on temperatures,
however, as highs today climb 5-10 degrees above yesterday's
readings under abundant sunshine. Later tonight winds will shift
to southerly in response to surface pressure falls to our west.
This will begin to increase moisture across the region through the
day Friday, with rain chances also on the increase. The strongest
forcing looks to pass through the panhandles and northwest
Oklahoma on Friday, closer to the track of the shortwave. Rain
chances will be highest for those areas Friday night, with chances
then spreading eastward across the rest of the area into Saturday
morning. Weak elevated instability will allow for a chance of
thunderstorms during this period, but no severe weather is
expected.

The shortwave lifts northward and weakens during the day Saturday,
leaving the area under brief height rises. In response, rain chances
will likely decrease for a time before another weak shortwave
approaches on Sunday. With moisture still in place across the region
this shortwave will likely bring renewed thunderstorm development
Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of a dryline. Models have overall
trended weaker and faster with this wave, shifting the dryline
eastward and veering low-level wind fields by Sunday afternoon.
This would suggest that most of the organized/severe thunderstorm
activity would remain east of our area, but trends in dryline
positioning and wind shear will need to be monitored.

Model differences increase by Monday as the European model (ecmwf) remains deeper
with the system than the GFS as it moves eastward, although it has
trended towards the GFS the past few runs. This has a large impact
on temperatures Monday, with the GFS having a much weaker push of
cold air behind the system and therefore is much warmer for our
area than the European model (ecmwf). With the overall trend toward a weaker wave,
weighted the forecast more toward the GFS and its briefer/weaker
push of colder air for Monday into Tuesday. By Wednesday, upper
ridging builds into the area bringing warmer temperatures ahead of
the next system that approaches our area Thursday into Friday.

Ware

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 66 41 69 51 / 0 0 0 60
Hobart OK 70 41 70 50 / 0 0 10 80
Wichita Falls Texas 72 44 73 53 / 0 0 0 70
gage OK 69 40 68 47 / 0 0 60 80
Ponca City OK 64 39 69 49 / 0 0 0 60
Durant OK 71 41 71 50 / 0 0 0 30

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...

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