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afdoun

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
515 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017

Aviation...20/00z taf issuance...
messy aviation weather period underway. Thunderstorms will
continue to move across western North Texas and western Oklahoma
through over the next several hours, gradually building eastward
overnight. From current observations, most sites dipped to MVFR
ceilings and visibilities with passing storms. Sites impacted by
storms will experience varying wind gusts, visibility changes, and
ceiling changes, likely flirting between MVFR and IFR at times.
General timing of thunderstorms is reflected in the tafs, with
tempos covering windows of greatest thunderstorm impacts.

Kurtz

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 235 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017/

Discussion...
cloud cover across central and southwest OK continues to erode
this afternoon. As destabilization continues, and height falls
associated with the mid to upper trough commence, this afternoon
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop. There is good agreement between both cam and
deterministic solutions of initiation occuring near western North Texas
and SW OK before 00z. Coverage should increase rapidly during the
evening hours as the mid level trough and jet approach. Before
then, if storms can remain sfc based as the low level jet increases, there
will be a low tornado threat. Hail will also be possible,
although marginal mid level lapse rates will likely limit the
potential. Late tonight, the storms should begin to merge and
become quasi linear near the i35 corridor presenting a marginal
severe wind gust threat. Flash flooding will also be possible
through the overnight hours with record pwats around 1.5 in
expected across central OK. Most of the activity will exit our
eastern zones before 18z Mon, although some precip will linger
across southeast OK.

A warming trend is still anticipated through the week under the
influence of a mid to upper shortwave ridge. By Thursday, strong
downslope winds accompanying a mid to upper shortwave trough could
support high temps in the low to upper 80s across much of the
area. A cold front will then follow for Fri dropping temps back to
near normal values by the weekend. The next chance of precip may
arrive near the end of the weekend into early next week as another
mid to upper trough, with moisture this time, arrives.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 57 74 43 73 / 80 10 0 0
Hobart OK 52 73 38 74 / 40 10 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 56 74 44 75 / 50 10 0 0
gage OK 47 70 34 78 / 10 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 58 73 42 74 / 70 10 0 0
Durant OK 60 69 49 75 / 80 50 10 0

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.

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