Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 182016
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
316 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017
the main focus of this forecast is on Saturday, when an upper-
level wave and surface cold front will bring widespread rain and
thunderstorms to the region.
After another mild and breezy day tomorrow, rain chances will
reenter the forecast tomorrow night, as moisture begins to
increase and the low-level jet generates weak isentropic lift over
western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Texas. The continuing
influx of moisture will generally maintain low rain/elevated
thunderstorm chances through Saturday afternoon.
As a cold front enters northwest Oklahoma Saturday afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to erupt along the front. Instability
and vertical wind shear will support severe storms. The front is
then expected to continue its advance to the southeast, exiting
our forecast area during the early morning hours of Sunday. The
severe weather risks will initially be hail and damaging winds,
but convert quickly to mainly wind late Saturday evening.
Dry weather will follow for Sunday through the remainder of the
forecast period as northwest flow aloft becomes well established.
A second cold front is forecast to sweep southeast across
Oklahoma/North Texas on Monday night or early Tuesday, but it will
have minimal amounts of moisture to work with, and no
precipitation is currently expected with that front. Post-frontal
temperatures will be fairly close to the seasonal average.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 52 78 58 76 / 0 0 0 20
Hobart OK 53 78 61 76 / 0 0 10 30
Wichita Falls Texas 53 80 62 79 / 0 0 20 30
gage OK 51 78 59 74 / 0 0 0 20
Ponca City OK 51 79 57 77 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 51 82 58 79 / 0 0 10 20