Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 240958
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
358 am CST Sat Feb 24 2018
given GFS bias of lowering pressures/cyclogenesis in region of
shallow cold air in place, GFS essentially discarded first 24-36
hours and ecm/NAM blend followed. Primarily impact will be lowered
high temperatures for today given slower erosion of cloud cover and
influx of colder air from the north/west this afternoon. Speaking
of colder temperatures, temps hovering near the freezing mark
across northwest Oklahoma will continue through at least 8 or 9 am
with potential for at least patchy freezing drizzle. No advisory
is anticipated with marginal temperatures, but if we can get some
ground truth of any problems, one will be issued for the early
This will also confine lower relative humidity values and stronger winds over a
smaller portion of southwest Oklahoma and western North Texas.
Given recent moistening of fuels/surface layer, erc-g values have
dipped and no red flag is anticipated. We will issue a fire danger
statement for portions of our northern Texas counties and perhaps
a couple of southwest counties for this afternoon.
Storms over south-central and southeast Oklahoma this morning
through early afternoon will remain elevated with primarily a
marginally severe hail threat. Heavy rainfall will continue to be
the main impact through early afternoon over areas that have seen
two to almost 5 inches of rain this week. The Flood Watch was kept
intact, but we did segment the watch to allow areas along and west
of I-35 to fall off at noon since any activity that gets going
should be east of those counties this afternoon.
We will need to watch for potential for areas or widespread ground
fog tonight and early Sunday, especially over areas that have
received heavy rainfall the past several days. Models all bring in
enough dry air to prevent dense fog conditions, but we will watch
closely for inclusion in later forecasts.
Both the GFS and ecm have slowed next week's system down, with the
ecm cutting off upper system off and showing impacts through
Thursday. Pops were extended through Wednesday night and will
likely be extended into Thursday if this slower trend continues.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 52 30 60 32 / 70 0 0 0
Hobart OK 57 30 61 29 / 30 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 61 33 64 31 / 80 0 0 0
gage OK 48 28 57 26 / 20 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 46 25 57 28 / 60 0 0 0
Durant OK 63 36 63 40 / 100 0 0 0
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for okz032-042-043-047-048-
Flood Watch until noon CST today for okz041-045-046-050.
Texas...Flood Watch until noon CST today for txz090.