Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS64 KOUN 251745
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The May 25-26, 2017 18 UTC TAF discussion follows: 

&&

.AVIATION...
Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue 
through at least this evening with gusty, southerly winds. Low- 
level wind shear is expected to increase after 03Z as a veered 
55-60 knot low-level jet develops across western north Texas into 
central Oklahoma. Greatest confidence of >30 knots of wind shear 
will be from KSPS to KLAW to KOKC/KOUN. Strongest winds are 
expected at 1500-2000 ft AGL.

A cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma after 
midnight, and will progress southeastward through all terminals 
(except KSPS) Friday morning. Winds will gradually shift to the 
west and then the northwest as the front passes by. At least 
temporarily MVFR ceilings will be possible behind the front. 
Greatest confidence for flight restrictions is across northern 
Oklahoma (KGAG/KWWR/KPNC).

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1118 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have already warmed into the lower 90s across
parts of west Texas late this morning. Very hot to very warm 
temperatures can be expected this afternoon, especially across far
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Near surface moisture
will continue to increase during the afternoon, with lower 60
dewpoint returning to the eastern half of Oklahoma by late
afternoon.   

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail with only mid/high clouds expected
through the forecast period. Winds will be gusty from the south 
today. Towards the end of the period, a cold front will settle 
into northern Oklahoma shifting the winds to northwest at KGAG, 
KWWR and perhaps KPNC, and a dryline will move into western 
Oklahoma shifting winds to southwesterly at KCSM, KHBR and perhaps
KLAW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
It is starting to get hot out there. Temperatures will be 
significantly warmer across the area today, but especially in the 
southwest where we will likely see triple digit temperatures in 
north Texas near and west of US-283 where downslope winds develop.

Beyond today, things get more complex. Models are now bring the 
cold front farther south tomorrow than yesterday morning's runs. 
And again a dryline pushes west across north Texas and southern 
Oklahoma. The from will bring somewhat cooler (but still warm) air
into the north while it will bake again in the southwest ahead of
the front and behind the dryline. Again, confidence is not very 
high on specific locations of these boundaries tomorrow given the 
relative subtle forcing. But the other issue is precipitation 
chances. Storms will likely develop on the high plains with 
upslope low-level winds north of the boundary, and we could see 
some of these storms move into northwest Oklahoma. We also see a 
highly conditional chance of storms developing in the southeast 
near the front and/or dryline. There is a lot of uncertainty about
storm development southeast given the lack of significant forcing
and the unknown quality of low-level moisture return given the 
last front did scour out Gulf dewpoints. The model solutions of 
mid- upper 70s dewpoints seems to be quite generous given the 
current condition of the Gulf, so some of the extreme instability 
values forecast are very likely too high. But very high 
instability is still expected and CIN values will still be 
relatively low. So there is a very conditional threat of severe 
storms in the southeast tomorrow and tomorrow evening - 
precipitation chances are relatively low, but if storms go, they 
will go big.

Some complexity and uncertainty extends into Saturday, mainly 
surrounding positions of the surface features. But overall, there 
will be one additional day of moisture advection and a more 
defined shortwave with which to contend, so storm chances and 
severe weather risk likely will be higher. Again, we could see 
some storms northwest coming off the high plains, and higher 
chances of storms near the front and dryline Saturday afternoon 
and Saturday night. Storms may linger near the front in the south 
into Sunday.

After Sunday, the area remains under the influence of northwest 
flow aloft and the potential for storms to move off the central 
high plains toward the area. /..speg.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  66  90  67 /   0   0  10  10 
Hobart OK         93  61  93  64 /   0   0  10  10 
Wichita Falls TX  96  73  99  70 /   0   0   0  10 
Gage OK           93  59  85  60 /   0   0  10  20 
Ponca City OK     84  62  87  66 /   0   0  10  10 
Durant OK         88  70  94  73 /   0   0  10  20 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations