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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
553 am CDT Sat may 27 2017

Discussion...



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Aviation...
MVFR ceilings are expected over south central and into central
Oklahoma this morning with strong lower-level moisture advection.
Some fog will accompany the moisture. Conditions will return to
VFR by afternoon. A dryline will bring isolated thunderstorms into
central Oklahoma late this afternoon. A cold front will move
across northern Oklahoma today and into central and southern
sections this evening. The front will bring a large area of
thunderstorms to central and southeast Oklahoma this evening and
overnight.

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Previous discussion... /issued 350 am CDT Sat may 27 2017/

Discussion...
extremely high boundary layer moisture will move northward into
central and southeast Oklahoma today. This will set the stage for
very high instability during the very hot afternoon. A dryline
will move into western Oklahoma this afternoon, but underneath a
strong cap that is expected to last until very late in the
afternoon. Models indicate that isolate severe storms may form
along or east of Highway 81. Other, more widespread thunderstorms,
also likely severe, will move southeast into northern and central
Oklahoma this evening along a cold front. Shear and instability
are such that very large hail and a few tornadoes can be expected.
The risk for tornadoes increases to the northeast of Oklahoma City
where instability is likely to be maximized near the front. A
wind hazard will increase this evening as storms along the front
are expected to form into a large complex over Easter central or
southeast Oklahoma and last into early Sunday. Although
temperatures will be lower after the front, it will still be very
warm, but drier going into the first part of next week. By Tuesday
moisture returns and thunderstorm chances again are in the
forecast for the rest of the week. Several weak upper waves will
pass over the Southern Plains through the week, but none look
particularly strong until possibly on Friday.

Additionally, extremely humid air and very high temperatures have
justified a heat advisory for this afternoon from south central
into central Oklahoma.

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 94 62 80 57 / 20 30 10 0
Hobart OK 100 60 83 56 / 10 10 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 102 65 83 59 / 10 20 10 0
gage OK 89 54 80 53 / 10 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 92 59 80 56 / 30 30 0 0
Durant OK 91 66 80 61 / 20 60 20 10

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Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for okz019-020-025>030-039>041-045-046-050.

Texas...none.
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