Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KOUN 201018 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 518 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .AVIATION... 12 TAFs - VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/ DISCUSSION... The heat continues to be the story for the early portions of this forecast period. Upper high will continue to influence the region for a few more days but the center of the high should slowly shift east. Each day through Saturday, afternoon highs are expected to be the same or one to two degrees warmer than the previous day with a number of locations across the fa likely reaching/breaking the century mark. Humid conditions are also still expected, especially in eastern portions of the fa where less mixing/drying is forecast. With the persistent heat and potential for heat index values of 105-108, will issue a heat advisory for parts of Oklahoma for today into Friday. The heat advisory may be needed into Saturday for parts of the area as well, but enough uncertainty that will hold off on putting it into Saturday for now. Models show a shortwave moving into the the Great Lakes region this weekend which will likely cause a weak frontal boundary to approach the area. This boundary may not initially move into the fa but convection near the boundary may effectively push it and/or other outflow boundaries into portions of the area late this weekend/early next week. With the potential for boundaries in/near the area, sfc heating, and weak flow aloft, some showers and storms will be possible, although likely not very widespread, late this weekend into early next week. The highest chances for rain are currently expected to be across the northern third to half of the fa, but will likely be dependent on the locations of any boundaries in the area. The rain, boundaries, and clouds could bring slight relief to the heat for a few days. However, models show an upper high building back into the region towards the middle of next week limiting rain chances and causing temperatures to increase again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 100 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 101 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 100 77 100 77 / 0 0 10 0 Gage OK 101 76 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 101 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 97 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ007-008- 012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...None.