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000 
FXUS64 KOUN 201018
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
518 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.AVIATION...
12 TAFs - VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
The heat continues to be the story for the early portions of this 
forecast period. Upper high will continue to influence the region 
for a few more days but the center of the high should slowly shift 
east. Each day through Saturday, afternoon highs are expected to be 
the same or one to two degrees warmer than the previous day with a 
number of locations across the fa likely reaching/breaking the 
century mark. Humid conditions are also still expected, especially 
in eastern portions of the fa where less mixing/drying is 
forecast. With the persistent heat and potential for heat index 
values of 105-108, will issue a heat advisory for parts of 
Oklahoma for today into Friday. The heat advisory may be needed 
into Saturday for parts of the area as well, but enough 
uncertainty that will hold off on putting it into Saturday for 
now.

Models show a shortwave moving into the the Great Lakes region this 
weekend which will likely cause a weak frontal boundary to approach 
the area. This boundary may not initially move into the fa but 
convection near the boundary may effectively push it and/or other 
outflow boundaries into portions of the area late this weekend/early 
next week. With the potential for boundaries in/near the area, sfc 
heating, and weak flow aloft, some showers and storms will be 
possible, although likely not very widespread, late this weekend 
into early next week. The highest chances for rain are currently 
expected to be across the northern third to half of the fa, but will 
likely be dependent on the locations of any boundaries in the area. 
The rain, boundaries, and clouds could bring slight relief to the 
heat for a few days. However, models show an upper high building 
back into the region towards the middle of next week limiting rain 
chances and causing temperatures to increase again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK        101  78 102  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX 100  77 100  77 /   0   0  10   0 
Gage OK          101  76 102  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK    101  77 102  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         97  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ007-008-
     012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...None.

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