Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 291634
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1134 am CDT Mon may 29 2017
Aviation...29/18z taf issuance...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and variable
winds will persist for the majority of the time. In general,
directions will be northerly early, shifting to southerly this
evening and overnight. Mid to high, scattered to broken, ceilings
may occur at times through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 559 am CDT Mon may 29 2017/
please see the 12z aviation discussion below.
high confidence for persistent VFR conditions exist at most
Oklahoma and western North Texas taf sites this morning. High
resolution models show isolated high-based convective showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms developing in vicinity of the northern
Oklahoma terminals. At this time, these prospects appear small
with mainly scattered cumulus developing at or just above 5,000
ft by early afternoon. Otherwise, winds will be light and
Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CDT Mon may 29 2017/
low precipitation probabilities will persist through much of next
week. More notable rain/storm chances are expected Thursday.
Most solutions depict the weak wind shift/frontal boundary now
over central Kansas sagging southward toward northern Oklahoma
late today. High resolution cams show weak convective signals in
proximity to this boundary, as additional convection progresses
southeast from the mountains. This supports the addition of slight
chance /20 percent/ pops over northern Oklahoma this afternoon/
evening, but overall rain/severe weather chances will be very low.
The next meaningful opportunity for unsettled weather will occur
on Thursday. Consistent nwp signals suggest a shortwave trough
will eject within the southern stream over the Southern Plains.
Have maintained likely /60 percent/ pops over southern and
southwestern Oklahoma and western North Texas in closest proximity
to better forcing during the day Thursday. Currently, it appears
that relatively weak shear will preclude an organized severe
weather threat, but low-end severe hail/wind may become possible.
Otherwise, a transition toward a late Spring/early Summer synoptic
pattern appears likely by late week/weekend. Guidance diverges and
consistency in solutions is low, but a general signal for
moderate northwesterly flow aloft and low predictability rain
chances that may favor nocturnal convection approaching from the
Colorado terrain warrants continued slight chance/chance pops
through the weekend with near seasonal temperatures.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 87 60 85 63 / 0 0 10 10
Hobart OK 87 60 87 63 / 0 0 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 87 60 88 65 / 0 0 10 10
gage OK 85 57 85 60 / 20 20 20 20
Ponca City OK 86 60 84 62 / 20 20 20 20
Durant OK 87 64 87 64 / 0 0 0 10