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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
429 am CDT Wed may 24 2017

one more mild day today before we get a taste of Summer beginning
tomorrow, especially in the southwest. We will stay in northwest
flow today as mid-level low settles southeast through the
Mississippi Valley. Surface ridge axis moves through overnight
tonight and southerly winds return. Although the mid-level ridge
the moves over the plains tomorrow is not of very strong
amplitude, a dryline moves into western sections of the area with
a strong downslope component of the low-level winds. This will
create hot conditions in the southwest tomorrow where surface
winds veer the strongest. Some areas will be pushing triple digits
tomorrow in the southwestern sections of our North Texas counties.
The surface low meanders over Oklahoma through Friday night
bringing a cold front into northern Oklahoma, but keeping a
strong, hot west/southwest flow in the southwest. The upper wave
features are rather subtle in the broad west-southwest flow aloft,
so do not have high confidence in specific placement of the
surface features (especially the cold front) on Thursday and
Friday, so there may be some bust potential on temperatures in the
north and central depending on where the front ends up on each
day. We will keep low pops Friday in the north near where the
front is expected to be. Otherwise, storm chances appear to
primarily be north of the area on Friday night, but again we will
have to watch where the surface front is located.

A stronger and more defined wave approaches the plains on Saturday
bringing surface cyclogenesis to western Oklahoma or the
panhandles on Saturday and our next significant chance of
precipitation and severe weather potential, mainly in eastern
portions of the area. This upper wave sets up in the Great Lakes
region early next week with northwesterly flow aloft setting up
over the northern/Central Plains. There is a signal of at least
one shortwave moving south/southeast into the upper Midwest and
plains, so we will watch for the potential of nocturnal mesoscale convective system
chances moving out of the Central Plains. But this is still a few
days away.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 72 52 85 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 79 54 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 80 55 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 76 53 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 70 49 82 63 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 75 53 87 71 / 0 0 0 0


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...

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