Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 232338
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
538 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018
for the 00z tafs:
VFR conditions will continue. Winds will be light west-
northwesterly and trend south-southwesterly later tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 244 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/
the main focus this forecast remains fire weather.
Temperatures will continue to gradually warm through late this week
with highs back into the 60s across most of the area by Thursday.
Winds will gradually shift towards the south Wednesday. Breezy winds
are expected Thursday as pressure gradient strengthens across the
area and mixing occurs. Models show a cold front moving across the
area Friday causing winds to shift to the NW/N. The cool air behind
the front will also cause high temperatures to drop back down into
the 50s this weekend.
Moisture is expected to spread north across parts of the region late
this week on the southerly winds. This moisture along with the storm
system/cold front affecting the region could bring a chance for rain
in southeast parts of the fa, where best moisture will likely be, late this
Fire weather... increased fire weather concerns will continue across
parts of the area throughout much of the forecast period, especially
in parts of western OK and western North Texas.
Wednesday - winds will shift towards the south but remain relatively
light, except for maybe far northwest parts of OK where winds could be a
little stronger. Despite the light winds, humidities will be low in
western parts of the fa and combined with above normal temperatures
and dry vegetation elevated fire weather conditions will be possible.
Thursday - stronger S to SW winds are expected, especially across northwest
parts of OK. The breezy winds combined with relative humidity values below 20
percent and highs in the 60s, near critical to critical fire weather
conditions will be possible. With this in mind will issue a fire wx
watch for Thursday afternoon. For now will confine to northwest and parts
of west central OK where conditions will be most likely but the
watch area may need to be expanded further south where wind speeds
are currently more uncertain.
Friday - breezy S to SW winds will be possible ahead of the cold
front that will move across the area and cause winds to shift to the
NW/N. Humidities are not expected to be as low as the next couple of
days due to moisture spreading northward into the area but western
parts may not have enough time for the moisture to move in so relative humidity
values could drop to around 20 percent. The winds, warm
temperatures, and dry vegetation will still lead to elevated
Weekend into early next week - elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions will be possible for parts of the area.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 53 28 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 54 25 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 57 28 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 53 22 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 51 23 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 56 31 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for okz004>006-009>011-014>016-021.