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fxus64 koun 261958 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
258 PM CDT sun Mar 26 2017

cirrostratus continues to stream overhead this afternoon ahead of
the mid to upper low currently centered over SW Kansas. A few elevated
storms developed within nose of low level moisture plume/warm air advection over
central OK around 1 PM and have moved east of i35 now. Both the
previously mentioned cloud cover and early moist convection will
have an impact on instability for late this afternoon through this
evening. However, despite cloud cover some cumulus can be seen through
thin cirrus from near Chickasha to Lawton where an instability
axis resides. This instability axis should slowly start to expand
north and eastward through the late afternoon hours as height
falls commence. The hrrr continues to indicate rapid development
will occur along/ahead of the dryline around 23z across central
and south central OK. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts over
70 mph (especially east of i35 later this evening) will be
possible. In addition, ~850 mb flow will begin to veer this
evening increasing low level shear specifically along the i35
corridor. LCLs will also continue to lower as dewpoints climb
into the low 60s. Expect highest tornado potential to be some
time around 23-02z this evening. The storms should quickly exit
our eastern zones before 06z tonight.

A subtle cold front will accompany the mid to upper low late
tonight through tomorrow morning, with some dry air advection. It
will be a beautiful day tomorrow under the influence of a weak
surface ridge, although some stratus may try to liner over the NE.
The low level flow will then quickly return from the southeast Tuesday as
the next upper low traverses The Four Corners region. A fairly
sharp dryline is expected by Tue afternoon from the northwest panhandles
into western North Texas. Stout warm air advection and accompanying stratus may
limit the severe potential Tue to a narrow axis over the SW. Later
through the evening Tue, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected with the approach of the closed low. This low will slowly
meander over the central and Southern Plains through Thu, which
could bust some of the drought. Some locations could receive over
3 inches of rainfall through late Thu. A brief break in rain
chances will occur on Friday before yet another, even deeper,
closed low passes over the Southern Plains.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 52 70 48 75 / 30 0 0 20
Hobart OK 50 71 48 73 / 10 0 0 40
Wichita Falls Texas 51 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 40
gage OK 44 71 45 68 / 30 0 0 60
Ponca City OK 50 67 45 72 / 60 10 0 10
Durant OK 59 75 51 77 / 50 0 0 10


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... flag warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for okz021-033-034-
036-037. flag warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for txz083>089.


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