Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 280943
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
443 am CDT Wed Jun 28 2017
isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will move across
northwest Oklahoma through 12-13z (wwr/gag). Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected today and tonight with a breezy south
Previous discussion... /issued 351 am CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/
early this morning several areas of showers and storms have
formed across the northern and Central Plains ahead of a
shortwave trough. Farther south in Oklahoma, mid and high clouds
were drifting across the area. A few light showers/weak returns
may develop across mainly northwest Oklahoma through sunrise.
Rather dry air below cloud base may result in mainly virga.
Another hot and breezy day can be expected Wednesday with little or
no chance of rain. Late morning to early afternoon clouds will
develop, especially across the eastern half of Oklahoma.
Most of Thursday will also be hot and dry, especially over the western
third of Oklahoma and western North Texas. Thursday afternoon, a
dryline will mix eastward across the Texas Panhandle possibly
reaching far western Oklahoma. This may result in relative
humidity near or below 20 percent. Surface winds will be breezy
but may decrease some during the afternoon as a cold front
approaches. Regardless, elevated fire weather conditions may
develop across far western Oklahoma and adjacent areas of North
Texas Thursday afternoon. This afternoon may also be somewhat
elevated, but humidity levels should remain above 30 percent.
Chances for much needed rain will increase Thursday night into
Friday as a cold front moves across most of Oklahoma.
Thunderstorms that form late Thursday into early Friday will
mainly impact the northern part of the state. Very warm 7h
temperatures may initially limit thunderstorm chances across west
central/southwest Oklahoma and North Texas Friday and Friday
The stronger storms Friday and Friday night will be capable of
producing damaging winds, some hail, and locally heavy rainfall.
Better shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday will be across
southeast Oklahoma, especially in the morning. Saturday night into
early Sunday, additional storms may develop over central/northern
Oklahoma as low level winds increase within a west to northwest
flow aloft. Confidence in this is low.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 93 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 20
Hobart OK 95 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls Texas 93 72 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 98 72 101 67 / 30 0 0 20
Ponca City OK 93 74 94 70 / 10 0 0 40
Durant OK 90 70 92 75 / 0 0 10 10