Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 130251
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
851 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017
temperatures have fallen quickly this evening. However with
southwest surface winds that may increase slightly overnight,
temperatures may level off or even rise in some locations
overnight. Have made some minor tweaks to lows with this in mind,
otherwise no other changes expected.
Previous discussion... /issued 614 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/
A weak cold front will bring a wind shift to all
taf sites on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, a light
to moderate southwest wind will prevail. The front
will enter northwestern Oklahoma shortly after 12z
and will clear Special Weather Statement/law around 18-20z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 341 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/
fire weather continues to be the primary forecast focus this week.
Cooler and less breezy than yesterday, Tuesday has remained calm,
with afternoon temperatures slowly creeping into the lower 50s
through 2 PM. The surface high will gradually slip southeastward
through the evening and overnight with light winds shifting to the
south/southwest through late tonight through early morning,
A weak surface trough will approach through the morning hours,
Wednesday, with winds shifting to the west to northwest through the
day. Similar to Monday, winds will increase, especially across
northern and northwestern Oklahoma through the afternoon.
Temperatures will also be warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 60s
and lower 70s along the Red River valley. In response, elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions will exist across most of
western Oklahoma into western North Texas. Will hold off on any Fire
Weather Watch at this time, with northwestern Oklahoma being the
only consideration given winds, but confidence in reaching red flag
criteria is not great enough given current data to issue a watch.
Latest mid range guidance has come in more bullish with the 500mb
pattern, both the GFS and European model (ecmwf). A stronger 500mb trough is now
progged to dig south/southeast across the Southern Plains, with it's
axis from the mid-Missouri Valley to The Trans Pecos by Thursday
evening. This will usher in cooler temperatures, Thursday, with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Friday will be slightly warmer
as high pressure sets in through the afternoon, with increasing
south and southwesterly flow into Saturday ahead of the primary
500mb trough moving across the western United States. This will
result in warmer and windier conditions, with another increase of
fire weather conditions to near critical to critical in some places,
primarily across western Oklahoma and western North Texas.
Additionally, latest long range solutions have finally introduced
precipitation, primarily across eastern Oklahoma. Location and
duration will depend on the speed/track/strength of the trough.
However, right now, it's looking like central and western Oklahoma
and western North Texas will remain dry through the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 33 64 36 48 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 31 66 35 51 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 33 69 35 53 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 31 64 35 49 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 30 61 33 47 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 34 70 37 51 / 0 0 0 0