Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
333 am CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
main concerns will be with regards to severe weather and heavy
rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday.
Cool surface high will settle south across the area today with
pleasant temperatures and light winds. This however will be short-
lived as next system begins to take aim on the Southern Plains for
By Monday night, storm system near the West Coast will drop into
the Desert Southwest and close off. In response to this, low level
wind fields will shift back to the south and will once again begin
to bring increasing low level moisture northward. Unlike this last
system, the moisture will not have as far to go and will have more
time to get back into the area. 60 dewpoints are expected to lift
back toward the Red River Tuesday morning with 60 to 65 dewpoints
possibly as far north as I-40 by Tuesday afternoon.
As the upper low approaches, a dryline is expected to set up
across West Texas with a northward moving warm front that will lay
somewhere across Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon. European model (ecmwf) would
suggest this warm front extending from western North Texas, near a
surface low, northeast across Oklahoma. Again modest amounts of
instability and favorable wind fields will be present for the
development of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon with the
potential for large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes.
However, models are also beginning to indicate that quite a bit of
early day convection may develop across West Texas into western
Oklahoma, which would likely delay the northward progression of
the warm front, and would keep more significant instability from
developing, moderating the severe threat across the area. Will
need to watch convective trends closely on Tuesday.
This slow moving storm system will also likely produce heavy
rainfall across parts of the area from late Tuesday into the day
on Wednesday. At this point, most likely area for highest amounts,
possible in excess of 3 inches would be near and just north of the
surface warm front. This boundary is expected to be near I-44
corridor by late Tuesday. Although confidence in this location,
because of previously mentioned reasons, is not high.
Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) are now showing a large dry slot that works
its way into the area during the day on Wednesday, limiting precip
chances to mainly eastern and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday
afternoon. A few severe storms may also occur Wednesday afternoon,
mainly along and east of I-35. Some wrap-around showers may
linger into Thursday morning before shifting east of the area.
Another large closed low will develop over the Desert Southwest by
Friday with increasing rain chances across Southern Plains
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 69 47 70 59 / 0 0 50 80
Hobart OK 71 48 69 54 / 0 0 70 70
Wichita Falls Texas 76 51 76 58 / 0 0 60 70
gage OK 71 48 61 49 / 0 0 70 80
Ponca City OK 66 45 69 57 / 10 0 30 80
Durant OK 74 51 76 62 / 0 0 20 70