Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 180404
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1104 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017
..updated aviation discussion...
for the 06z tafs:
Very minor changes were made. The same quiet weather pattern
continues with high confidence in VFR conditions and southerly
winds varying about 30 degrees with the diurnal cycle. We added
some cirrus (few/sct250), especially west and south.
Previous discussion... /issued 241 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/
forecast will remain dry until late this week and into the
weekend. Moisture is expected to gradually increase across the
area this week. Models show a lead shortwave affecting the region
Friday. This lead wave and the moisture return could be enough for
some showers and storms to develop on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper
trough moves across the western U.S. Into the plains later this
week into the weekend. This upper system will cause a cold front
to move across the region Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop due to the cold front and upper trough, with
the highest rain chances expected late Saturday into Saturday
night. Models show the upper system exiting the area late this
weekend which would bring an end to the rain chances.
The front is also expected to bring some cool dry air to the
region putting an end to the gradual warm up that will go on this
week. Highs early next week are expected to be near or below
normal for this time of year.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 73 49 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 76 49 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 77 48 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 78 50 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 74 49 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 74 46 79 52 / 0 0 0 0