Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 232213
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
513 PM CDT Tue may 23 2017
Aviation... /for the 00z tafs/
VFR conditions and generally light north-northwesterly winds will
prevail. There should be a gradual trend from ~9,000 foot ceilings
to mostly clear conditions toward the end of the taf period, but
confidence is high in any ceilings being VFR.
Previous discussion... /issued 233 PM CDT Tue may 23 2017/
area of showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will continue to
move across approximately the southeast half of the fa the rest of
this afternoon. This activity is due to a shortwave rotating around
the upper low centered over MN/IA. The rain will continue to end
from northwest to southeast as this shortwave swings across and eventually exits
North winds will continue into part of the day Wednesday with high
temperatures remaining below normal for this time of year. Winds
will start to shift south late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Moisture will begin to spread back north on the south winds later
this week. Warmer temperatures will also return Thursday and
continue for parts of the area into Saturday with highs in the mid
90s possible in southwest portions of the fa for several days.
Models show a frontal boundary moving into the area Thursday night
and Friday as upper low moves across southern Canada/northern U.S.
This boundary is expected to stall over the area Friday. Models then
show a shortwave rotating across the northern/Central Plains with
the front eventually pushing south of the area over the weekend.
With moisture spreading back into the area and a frontal boundary
moving into and stalling across parts of the area, along with any
energy/disturbances moving through the upper flow, showers and
thunderstorms could be possible Friday night into early next week
but chances remain low, due to uncertainties as to where and if
storms will happen. Some of the models also show that some
showers/storms could develop in the High Plains and move into the fa
late evening/overnight on a few days. Some strong to severe storms
may be possible this weekend as well.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 67 48 72 53 / 40 0 0 0
Hobart OK 69 47 78 55 / 30 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 69 51 79 57 / 50 10 0 0
gage OK 68 44 77 54 / 10 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 68 47 70 50 / 20 20 0 0
Durant OK 72 52 74 53 / 30 10 0 0