Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 261045
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
545 am CDT Fri may 26 2017
a mild front will move south over Oklahoma during the day shifting
winds to north. Late this afternoon and evening isolated
thunderstorms may form along the front in southeast Oklahoma.
Additionally, isolated thunderstorms may enter western Oklahoma
from a dryline in the panhandles. Any storms should dissipate
shortly after sunset. Scattered MVFR clouds may form late tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 319 am CDT Fri may 26 2017/
a strong warming trend begins today and increases more tomorrow.
Afternoon temperatures Saturday may reach the middle 90s in
central Oklahoma and will exceed 100 in southwest Oklahoma and
areas to the southwest. A weak trough will move southeast across
Oklahoma today with resulting northwest winds; however, surface
moisture will increase substantially across southeast Oklahoma
where isolated thunderstorms may form very late this afternoon or
evening before dissipating with sunset. Daytime isolated
thunderstorms may move into western Oklahoma late this afternoon
from a dryline that will range across the Texas Panhandle. There
is a small chance that an isolated storm could produce large hail.
On Saturday, conditions will be more favorable for severe
thunderstorms. Only weak waves aloft are forecast to cross the
area, but very strong moisture advection will result in dewpoint
temperatures over 70 east of I-35 with strong instability.
Additionally, a front will move south and intersect with the
dryline which is expected to mix east during the early evening. A
triple Point May develop somewhere over western Oklahoma or
northern Texas. Strong shear and instability results in an
enhanced risk for severe storms across southeast Oklahoma with
lower risks to the west which are areas that may be west of the
dryline by the time the cap is broken to allow storms to develop.
This front will push into Texas Sunday with somewhat drier and
milder conditions for the first part of the next week. By
Wednesday humid conditions are again expected with moisture coming
north from the Gulf. A series of weak upper waves keeps
thunderstorm chances in the forecast the second part of the week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 91 70 94 64 / 10 0 10 30
Hobart OK 93 63 98 64 / 10 20 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 98 71 101 67 / 0 20 10 20
gage OK 86 61 87 56 / 20 20 10 10
Ponca City OK 87 66 90 62 / 10 10 10 20
Durant OK 95 75 92 70 / 10 20 20 50