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fxus66 kotx 210608 
afdotx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Spokane Washington
1008 PM PST Mon Feb 20 2017

Synopsis...
more wet weather can be expected through Tuesday, leading to
moderate precipitation, higher snow levels and renewed concerns of
flooding. Cooler and showery weather is forecast for Wednesday
and continuing for the rest of the work. Drier but cooler weather
is forecast for the upcoming weekend.



&&

Discussion...
evening update: pops and weather were adjusted for tonight into
Tuesday to show the current system exit and the next system enter
a few hours earlier. Latest radar and satellite indicates this
afternoon's weather disturbance has crossed into southern British Columbia with
just a few light showers lingering in the selkirks. A saturated
boundary layer has resulted in widespread stratus with a few
reports of drizzle. This matches well with the latest BUFKIT data
indicating a saturated profile toward -10c but little to no
moisture through the dendritic layer (-10 to -20c).

Incoming 00z models have also sped up the next system with rain
and snow expected to move into the Camas Prairie...blue mtns...and
l-c valley prior to 4am and continue to expand thereafter. North
American models continue to trend toward little to no pcpn
reaching the far northern valleys generally north of a line from
Sandpoint to Moses Lake. Still awaiting the European model (ecmwf) to decide if
flood watches are still necessary for Pend Oreille and Stevens
counties.

There is a potential for an inch of rain around the headwaters of
the Paradise creek near Moscow, Idaho. The uncertainty is whether
there is enough snow melt contribution still on Moscow Mountain to
push levels above bankfull and/or flood. Nohrsc indicates copious
amounts of swe still in place but perhaps only at elevations which
will remain a mix of rain/snow or even all snow. Consequently,
thinking we will see some sharp rises but rises will fall short of
the last event when there was an abundance of snow. Remaining
flood watches still look on track with the most significant river
rises expected on the Palouse and St Joe given the axis of
heaviest precipitation. /Sb







&&

Aviation...
06z tafs: the region is currently in between weather systems and
we are seeing areas of low stratus developing in this moisture
laden boundary layer. The next band of precipitation tracks in
from the south after 09z reaching Pullman and Lewiston is
then spreads rain and snow 14z-16z time frame toward Moses Lake
and Spokane. Precipitation may begin as freezing rain at Moses
Lake and Ephrata before temps warm above freezing by late morning.
For Spokane and Coeur D'Alene, snow should transition to rain by
early to mid afternoon with little to no runway snow accumulation.
Cooler air floods into the region after 00z with a strong
likelihood for rain to Switch Back to snow. Light slushy
accumulations will be possible before pcpn ends arnd Pullman,
Spokane, and c'da. Expect wdsprd mtn obscrns in Idaho throughout
the taf period. /Sb



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Spokane 31 39 26 38 22 35 / 10 70 70 20 20 20
Coeur D'Alene 31 39 28 37 21 35 / 10 80 80 30 20 20
Pullman 35 40 29 38 23 35 / 30 100 90 20 10 40
Lewiston 37 47 34 45 28 41 / 70 100 90 20 10 40
Colville 31 43 23 41 21 38 / 10 30 30 20 10 10
Sandpoint 30 40 30 38 22 35 / 10 50 60 30 20 30
Kellogg 32 38 28 35 22 34 / 10 100 100 60 30 50
Moses Lake 28 40 23 42 22 36 / 10 50 20 10 10 10
Wenatchee 28 39 25 40 23 35 / 10 30 10 20 10 10
Omak 27 39 21 39 21 35 / 10 20 10 20 10 10

&&

Otx watches/warnings/advisories...
Idaho...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for central Panhandle
mountains-Coeur D'Alene area-Idaho Palouse-northern
Panhandle.

Washington...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Moses Lake area-
northeast mountains-Spokane area-upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau.

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