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fxus66 kotx 230918 
afdotx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Spokane Washington
218 am PDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Synopsis...
the weather for the weekend will be quite warm. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will likely reach the mid 80s to low 90s.
Sunday and Monday will be even warmer with most lowland areas
reaching the 90s. A return to cooler, more average temperatures
are expected by the middle of next week, with breezy conditions
possible late Monday through Tuesday.

&&

Discussion...
today through Sunday night: a strong upper-level ridge will
amplify along the western US coastline over the next 48 hours
then shift inland on Sunday. The inland northwest will remain
quite dry with temperatures climbing well above average. Friday
will feature widespread 80s then by Sunday afternoon, expect most
locations to be in the 90s. A few locations in the lower Columbia
Basin may be reading triple digits by the end of the weekend.
Winds will be light over the next few days blowing from the
north/northeast today and Saturday then swinging around to
east/southeast Sunday. /Sb

Monday through Tuesday night: by Monday, the Main Ridge axis has
shifted east but nonetheless it will be another hot day with 850
mb temps in the 23-25 c range yielding widespread upper 80s and
90s. By Monday evening, both the GFS and to somewhat a lesser
extent the ec advertise a wave riding up from the SW through southeast Washington
and the central Idaho Panhandle. The instability over this region
is mainly capped but there may be just enough forcing to get a
couple thunderstorms going during the evening and into the
overnight hours. If any storms can get going, forecast soundings
show the potential for some gusty outflow winds. Winds over the
east slopes will also be on the increase by the evening hours
Monday.

The ridge breaks down overnight Monday and into Tuesday as a
system passes by to the north dragging its associated cold front
through the region. The GFS still wants to bring the shortwave
further south clipping the northeast portions of our forecast area
while the ec keeps the low well north in Canada. Because of this,
maintained a small shower/thunderstorm chance across far NE Washington
and the north Idaho Panhandle. The main weather concern for Tuesday
will be the windy and dry conditions. The gradient tightens by
Monday night and Tuesday resulting in gusty west-southwest winds.
BUFKIT and 850 mb winds suggest gusts generally in the 20-35 mph
range, perhaps higher in the usual Cascade gaps. Drier air will
also be filtering into the region, and while high temperatures
Tuesday will be around 10 f cooler than Monday, rhs will be in the
mid teens to mid 20s. This combination low rhs and gusty winds
after several days of hot/dry weather will lead to fire weather
concerns in the Monday evening through Tuesday night time frame,
particularly for the finer fuels in the basin.

Wednesday through friday: by Wednesday, the gradient slackens with
decreasing winds and near seasonal temperatures. From here, models
are in somewhat better agreement keeping the region in northwest
flow with the occasional passing wave. This will lead to near
seasonal temperatures and the occasional small precip chance over
the mountains of NE Washington and the north Idaho Panhandle. /Kalin

&&

Aviation...
06z tafs: dry northwest flow will continue VFR conditions to the
taf sites through the period. Expect light North/East winds
overnight and into Friday. /Rfox.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Spokane 81 55 87 59 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur D'Alene 78 50 84 54 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 79 51 85 55 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 85 56 91 59 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 81 48 87 52 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 78 45 83 49 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 77 48 83 51 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 87 54 93 56 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 86 60 92 62 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 85 54 91 55 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Otx watches/warnings/advisories...
Idaho...none.

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