Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Spokane Washington
1032 PM PDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Synopsis...
a warm, summery and mostly dry Summer pattern will continue
through the work week. However, there will be a chance for showers
and thunderstorms near the Canadian border through Wednesday.
High temperatures in the 90s will be common for nearly all towns
this week with a cool down expected next Sunday. Gusty winds will
accompany this cool down...especially across the Columbia Basin
and Cascade gaps.

&&

Discussion...
update: showers and thunderstorms continue this evening around the
Methow and Okanogan valleys as well as the north portion of the
Okanogan Highlands. With the loss of surface heating these storms
should gradually weaken this evening. However plenty of mid level
moisture and instability exists with the 0z NAM showing 0-6km most
unstable cape values of 500-1000 j/kg overnight in Okanogan County
with 300-600 j/kg from the Waterville Plateau northeast across the
Okanogan Highlands, NE mountains, and the north Idaho Panhandle.
The one missing piece for nocturnal thunderstorms is strong
lift...with just weak lift over the area ahead of a wave
approaching the area. Best chances will be in the northern
Okanogan Valley and in the mountains north of the Methow Valley
where isolated thunderstorms was added for the overnight hours.
Overall there is enough instability to at least keep a mention of
scattered showers in the forecast for the Okanogan and Methow
valleys, north Cascades, and Okanogan Highlands with isolated
showers extending south onto the Waterville Plateau, and as far
east as the NE mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. Jw

&&

Aviation...
06z tafs: a weak weather disturbance combined with increased
instability Tuesday afternoon will lead to scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the northern mountains. Until then...an area of
showers and thunderstorms near Omak this evening should decrease
but not end entirely as the approaching weather system creates
added lift over north central Washington overnight. Lift from this
may also lead to isolated showers close to keat...but for now
kept the keat taf forecast dry. Thunderstorms on Tuesday should
stay north of the taf sites. Jw

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Spokane 64 91 63 90 63 91 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur D'Alene 59 89 59 89 59 91 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
Pullman 54 90 53 89 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 66 97 65 96 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 56 92 56 92 57 93 / 20 20 20 10 10 0
Sandpoint 53 86 54 85 53 87 / 10 10 20 10 10 0
Kellogg 56 87 54 87 55 87 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 63 95 61 95 63 97 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 68 93 66 93 68 97 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 66 94 66 94 66 95 / 60 20 10 10 10 0

&&

Otx watches/warnings/advisories...
Idaho...none.
Washington...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations