Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus66 kotx 252334 
afdotx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Spokane Washington
434 PM PDT sun Jun 25 2017

Synopsis...
temperatures will be much above average through Monday, with
afternoon temperatures well into the 90s. The arrival of a cold
front Monday evening will bring the potential for widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Idaho Panhandle and
eastern Washington. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
Monday afternoon and evening. Winds will be breezy Tuesday and
Wednesday as temperatures fall back into the 80s.

&&

Discussion...

..thunderstorms with gusty winds possible late Monday afternoon
and evening...

Tonight through tuesday: the upper level ridge will shift east
this afternoon and open up the pac northwest to a southwest flow. For
tonight expect light winds and temperatures about 10-15 degrees
above average (upper 50s and 60s). Moisture currently seen along
the California/or border will move north overnight and provide an increase
in high level clouds.

Monday eastern Washington and north Idaho will be right in between two
systems moving across the western US. The first is a cutoff low
that moves across British Columbia. The second is a weather
disturbance that is moving into northern California and southern or.
Sprinkles will be possible during the morning hours. By mid to
late afternoon our chance of showers and thunderstorms will
increase as our instability and moisture increases. Temperatures
similar to Sunday can be expected (upper 80s to 90s). High
resolution models are showing the precipitation moving in a bit
further to the west than was previously forecasted. Have extended
the threat of thunder as far west as Republic and Moses Lake. Have
also increased our chance across the Spokane/Coe area as well as
the Palouse. The main impact with these storms will be gusty winds
and lightning. The threat of storms will continue through the
evening hours before pushing into north Idaho and western Montana
overnight. Westerly winds will remain breezy through the evening
and overnight hours across the Cascade gaps and into the Columbia
Basin. Tuesday will be much quieter, with a cool down of about 10
degrees from Monday. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through thursday: expect limited shower chances
and temperatures closer to seasonal averages. Low pressure
currently in the Gulf of Alaska moves to Alberta by the start of this
period before heading toward the north-Central Plains.
Disturbances round its backside pivot by the inland northwest in the
west/northwest flow. These, plus some orographic enhancement, will
lead to the occasional threat of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms. The threat will be highest around the north and
eastern mountains in the afternoon/early evening hours. Within
this period the best risk will be around Wednesday. It is possible
some showers may also slip off the mountains into the
northeastern Columbia Basin, around the Spokane/c'da area and
Palouse. Yet confidence in this occurrence is low. Winds will be
occasionally breezy in the afternoon/evening hours focused
especially around Tuesday and Wednesday.

Friday through sunday: the inland northwest transitions to a slightly
more active westerly flow, with somewhat better shower chances.
Friday morning a shortwave ridge leads in the next in Pacific
shortwave trough which enter late Friday afternoon into Friday
night, with a second following it up later Saturday into Sunday.
These will provide broader shower chances throughout the mountain
zones, as well as limited shower chances across the northeastern
Columbia Basin. At this time precipitation outside of the
mountains looks more isolated in nature. The zonal/westerly flow
temperatures will remain near seasonal averages. /J. Cote'

&&

Aviation...
00z tafs: changes expected during the next 24 hours. High
pressure will weaken Monday and shift to the east. Thin cirrus
will stream across the aviation area through the night. Monday the
flow will be more from the southwest and there is a hint that
some elevated forced early morning convection in the form of light
showers or sprinkles will pass through portions of eastern
Washington and north Idaho between 12z-18z Monday. Near and beyond
23z Monday surface based convection, some in the form of isolated
thunderstorms producing gusty wind, is then expected to form and
pass through eastern Washington and north Idaho. Storm motion
looks to be from southwest to northeast at 20 to 25 mph. /Pelatti

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Spokane 66 93 60 83 55 81 / 0 20 40 0 0 10
Coeur D'Alene 60 90 56 81 52 79 / 0 20 40 0 0 20
Pullman 63 90 58 79 52 77 / 0 20 40 10 0 10
Lewiston 66 97 62 87 57 85 / 0 20 40 10 0 10
Colville 59 92 54 85 51 85 / 0 20 30 0 0 20
Sandpoint 56 88 53 80 47 77 / 0 20 20 0 0 20
Kellogg 59 89 55 77 50 75 / 0 20 50 10 0 20
Moses Lake 64 96 58 88 54 87 / 0 20 20 0 0 0
Wenatchee 69 94 60 86 58 86 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
Omak 63 95 54 87 53 86 / 10 10 10 0 0 10

&&

Otx watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations