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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Spokane Washington
1031 am PDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Synopsis...
another round of scattered thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon across the north. Dry and hot weather is expected
Thursday and Friday. A cold front arrives this weekend, bringing
breezy conditions and cooler weather for the start of next week.

&&

Discussion...
morning update: the main focus for today will be convection across
the northern and eastern mountains with a smaller chance for
isolated cells on the northern and eastern rims of the basin. Hi-
res modeling would lead US to believe that coverage will be far
less compared to the last few days and this is due to subsidence
in the wake of a shortwave currently nosing toward Portland, or.
The best forcing with this wave will track along and south of the
Washington/or border where the air mass is a bit drier. Earlier timing of
this wave...through by mid afternoon...is also working against
thunderstorm potential. Subsidence on the backside of this wave
could very well shut off any convection in the Cascades before 5pm
today and possibly across the northern mountains as well. Not too
confident how this modeling has been handling the last few
afternoons of busy weather so will make little changes to the
forecast at this point but feeling we may be able to trim back
thunder chances later this afternoon.

Meanwhile, modest boundary layer moisture residing across far NE
Washington and north Idaho will bring the potential for another afternoon of
showers and storms. This activity looks be more isolated in nature
and could also shutoff earlier in the afternoon compared to the
last few days due to aforementioned subsidence.

As of 10am...cumulus buildups were largely observed over Shoshone
County. Hrrr has been most consistent with this area and this will
need to be monitored closely as the incoming shortwave interacts
with this instability. /Sb

&&

Aviation...
18z tafs: another weak shortwave moves into the region today.
Idaho and NE Washington will carry the highest risk for isold -tsra but a
few cells will be possible in the Cascades and northern Columbia
Basin. Confidence is lower today given subsidence on the backside
of the shortwave. May be able to remove vcsh from kgeg-ksff before
00z issuance. Convection wanes earlier this evening...after
00z. Otherwise expect dry and VFR conditions. /Sb




&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Spokane 91 65 93 68 94 64 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur D'Alene 90 60 92 63 93 61 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Pullman 90 54 92 57 93 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 99 68 99 69 100 67 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 91 58 95 60 95 55 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 86 54 88 57 89 55 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 88 55 89 57 90 57 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 97 65 98 66 99 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 96 70 98 70 98 66 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 95 67 97 68 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 0 0

&&

Otx watches/warnings/advisories...
Idaho...none.
Washington...none.
&&

$$

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