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fxus66 kotx 221117 
afdotx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Spokane Washington
417 am PDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Synopsis...
the weather for the weekend will be quite warm. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will likely reach the mid 80s to low 90s.
Sunday and Monday will be even warmer with most lowland areas
reaching the 90s. A return to cooler, more average temperatures
are expected by the middle of next week, with breezy conditions
possible late Monday and Tuesday.



&&

Discussion...
tonight through Saturday night: the inland northwest will reside
on the eastern periphery of an amplifying ridge of high pressure.
This will keep a dry northwest flow into the region promoting
mostly clear skies and subtle warming trend. Over the last few
days, the European forecast model was indicating a stronger wave
digging into the region bringing a threat for showers into the
Idaho Panhandle Friday. Trends over the last two runs have backed
off on this wave now coming in line with the drier North American
models giving more confidence to the drier forecast solution. Winds
at the surface will remain from the north/northwest then north
to northeast Friday/Saturday. The afternoon hours will feature
occasional gusts to 20 mph. Temperatures will start off near
seasonal averages this afternoon and warm a few degrees each day
returning to the mid 80s to lower 90s by the start of the weekend.
/Sb

Sunday and monday: this will be the warmest period of the week as
the high pressure ridge continues to build in. The ridge axis
will move into Washington on Sunday, when 850 mb temps around 23 c
suggest widespread upper 80s and low 90s. The axis crosses
eastern Washington on Monday and temperatures increase 4-5
degrees. Models have been increasing monday's temperatures
in recent runs, and it's now likely we'll see highs in the mid to
upper 90s, with some areas in the deep basin even breaching the
100 degree mark. The ridge begins to move out on or about Monday
evening, with flow becoming southwest on Monday which will begin a
regulation in our temperatures, but also increase winds late
Monday as the cross Cascade pressure gradient tightens.

Tuesday through thursday: for those who aren't fans of monday's
excessive heat, Tuesday will be a relief. With the ridge being
pushed out, temperatures will be dropping around 10 degrees;
closer to normal but still above average for late June. Winds will
be gusty on Tuesday as well, and given the substantial curing of
the fine fuels in the basin that is likely Sat-Mon, concern for
grass fire spread will be elevated. Beyond Tuesday models diverge
significantly on how the upper flow pattern will evolve. /Bw

&&

Aviation...
12z tafs: dry northwest flow will promote mostly clear skies
through 12z Fri. Winds will be lighter compared to the last few
days. Expect occasional gusts to 20 mph at Spokane and couer d
Alene...otherwise winds will be around 10kts or less and becoming
more terrain driven at keat. /Sb



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Spokane 77 50 83 55 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur D'Alene 75 46 80 51 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 74 45 82 49 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 81 53 87 55 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 77 46 83 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 73 43 79 47 80 49 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
Kellogg 71 44 79 47 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 82 50 88 54 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 82 55 87 58 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 81 51 87 53 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

&&

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