Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 kotx 232334
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Spokane Washington
434 PM PDT Fri Jun 23 2017
the weather for the weekend will be quite warm. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will likely reach the mid 80s to low 90s.
Sunday and Monday will be even warmer with most lowland areas
reaching the 90s. A return to cooler, more average temperatures
are expected by the middle of next week, with breezy conditions
possible late Monday through Tuesday.
tonight through Sunday night: a strong ridge of high pressure will
build in over the region. This pattern has been advertised now for
a few days with models exhibiting very good run to run
consistency. As such, there is high confidence for a strong
warming trend through the weekend. Temperatures will soar up into
the 90s across the region and near 100 for portions of upper
Columbia Basin, Moses Lake area and l-c valley by Sunday. Heat
related impacts will be possible with these temperatures with
outdoor activities best saved for the morning and evening hours
outside of the peak heating of the day. Moisture will be on the
increase Sunday night with some mid to high level clouds beginning
to show up by this point. Any shower/thunderstorm chances though
will hold off until after this period. /Svh
Monday through Friday...
on Monday, a cutoff area of low pressure will move inland over
central British Columbia. Residual warm temperatures will linger
one more day with daytime high temperatures expected to be similar
to Sunday...widespread 90s. A weak shortwave will move over the
region early Monday but we will be too capped to trigger any
shower or thunderstorm activity. Monday afternoon and evening
could be a different story with a more vigorous shortwave
triggering convection over far northeastern or and southeastern
Washington. Maintained the chance of thunderstorms wording in this
region...may need to expand the coverage a bit north to include
Pullman up to even Spokane and Coeur D'Alene. Currently the GFS is
the only model spreading showers up that far north.
The other story Monday will be the blustery winds and increased
fire danger. Fuels may be more receptive after the hot
weekend...certainly the fine fuels. Winds pick up during the
afternoon and especially the evening hours as the surface low
pressure builds over the northern rockies and high pressure noses
back northward over the eastern Pacific. The upper low stalls over
southern Alberta/Saskatchewan resulting in northwest flow aloft
establishing itself over the inland northwest. The GFS is a bit
farther west with this feature which would leave more residual
instability over the eastern half of the region. For now,
maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday through
Thursday over the eastern mountains.
Long range forecast favors the ridge of high pressure building
and edging back inland by Friday and into the weekend.
Temperatures should rebound back to the mid 80s by next weekend
with the European model (ecmwf) hinting at lower 90s by late weekend.
00z tafs: building high pressure coupled with a dry northwest
flow will keep VFR conditions over taf sites through the period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Spokane 55 86 59 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Coeur D'Alene 50 84 54 91 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Pullman 47 84 54 92 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
Lewiston 55 91 59 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
Colville 47 88 49 92 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 45 83 49 88 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Kellogg 48 83 52 90 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Moses Lake 52 93 55 98 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Wenatchee 60 91 63 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Omak 54 90 55 95 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10