Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kokx 232015
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
315 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017
high pressure will move slowly off the coast Friday followed by a
cold front late Saturday. High pressure will follow through Tuesday.
A cold front will move across the area Wednesday followed by high
Near term /through tonight/...
clouds will increase through sunset as the northern stream mid level
short wave moves east across the area this evening. Clouds from the
southern stream long wave will remain mainly southeast of the region
through early tonight.
High pressure will remain centered over the mid Atlantic states with
a west flow near 10 mph tonight. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10
degrees below normal.
Short term /Friday through Friday night/...
fair weather with increasing temperatures are on tap for the local
Low level warm air advection will develop by Friday afternoon and
increase Friday night as a strong low pressure system moves east
across southeast Canada, north of New England.
Southwest winds will transport warmer air northeast across the
region, bringing near normal temperatures during the day Friday then
above normal temperatures Friday night.
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
a cold front will be approaching from the Ohio Valley Saturday.
Models do not have a significant amount of precipitation
forecast with this frontal passage. Temperatures on Saturday
will be in the low 50s along the coast and mid to upper 40s
inland. Pressure gradient will increase behind the front on
Saturday night and into Sunday, which will increase winds to 15
to 20 mph. Temperatures Saturday night will be in the mid to
upper 30 to near 40.
High pressure builds in on Sunday into Tuesday. Temperatures in the
mid to upper 40s Sunday and Monday will begin to rise into the
low to mid 50s by Tuesday, which is above normal for this time
A cold front is forecast to move across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Moisture associated with this front is expected to
dissipate as it approaches our area and the frontal passage may
end up being precipitation free. Even with the frontal passage,
temperatures are forecast to be above normal into Wednesday.
High pressure builds back on Thursday with temperatures in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.
Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/...
high pressure builds to the south through Friday, while a weak
surface trough passes through the area this evening.
VFR. North-northwest winds less than 10kt gradually back around to the
west (left of 310 magnetic) this afternoon.
New York Metro enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90
Kjfk taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Klga taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kewr taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kteb taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Khpn taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kisp taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Outlook for 18z Friday through Tuesday...
Friday-Friday night...VFR. Light west winds, backing to the SW by
late morning/early afternoon.
Saturday-Saturday night...low chance of -shra and MVFR with
frontal passage. Windshift from SW to northwest late afternoon/evening.
Sunday...becoming VFR. Northwest winds g20-30kt forecast.
Monday...VFR. Winds back to more westerly and decrease. Gusts
Tuesday...VFR. SW winds g15-20kt.
the Small Craft Advisory/Small Craft Advisory from Sandy Hook New Jersey east to Moriches
Inlet, New York was cancelled as both wind and seas are forecast to remain
less than 25 kt and 5 feet. The Small Craft Advisory from Moriches Inlet east to
Montauk Point remains in effect as southeast swells with a period of 10
seconds will continue until around 5 am Friday morning.
Winds and seas will remain tranquil through the day Friday.
The next chance for reaching Small Craft Advisory levels will be Friday night and
Saturday across the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters as SW winds
increase to 15-20 kt and seas rebuild to around 5 feet.
Below Small Craft Advisory level conditions continue on all
non-ocean zones on Saturday with small craft conditions likely
over the ocean waters through Sunday behind a frontal system.
As high pressure builds across the area waters Sunday night into
Monday seas will improve. Ocean seas may builds towards small
craft conditions again Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of next
frontal system and remain above small craft conditions through
the middle of the week.
no significant hydrologic impacts are expected through the next
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EST Friday for anz350.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am EST Friday