Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kokx 290244
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1044 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017
high pressure will continue to build eastward and become nearly
stationary off the mid Atlantic coast, while a warm front passes
well to the north. The offshore high will dominate from Friday
into Saturday before a cold front moves through on Sunday. The
front may then become stationary just to the south early next
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
forecast is on track. Again, only minor updates needed to T/TD
and sky based on latest obs and trends. Mid and high clouds
associated with a mid level vort Max moves through overnight.
Lows tonight should be close to or a few degrees below MOS
guidance mins, with 55-60 well inland and across much of eastern
Long Island, and 60-65 elsewhere.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
the pressure gradient will tighten up by afternoon as the high
moves out over the Atlantic, and as a warm front out ahead of
low pressure in the upper Great Lakes sets up across upstate New York
and New England, S-SW winds will increase to 15-25 mph with
gusts 30-35 mph, and it is quite possible that much of Long
Island and southern CT could see peak wind gusts close to 40 mph
late in the afternoon. Temps away from immediate south-facing
shores should peak in the 80s, though if the stronger southerly
flow kicks in sooner than expected, much of Long Island may not
make it out of the 70s. Highs in urban NE New Jersey may approach 90.
Dangerous rip currents are expected at the ocean beaches,
particularly in the afternoon and evening.
For Thu night, with the warm front well off to the north do not
expect much of any precip, though eastern areas could see some
mid level clouds as an area of mid level moisture and weak
instability rides across. It will also be warmer and more humid
than recent nights, with lows 65-70.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
Bermuda high pressure will continue to usher in warmer and more
humid air from Friday into Sunday. There is a chance for showers
and thunderstorms each period, with the better chances during
the afternoon and early evening both Saturday and Sunday.
Drier and less humid conditions return on Monday with the next
chance at showers and storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 80s with
increasing humidity levels. A few 90 degree readings are also
possible in the NYC Metro and NE New Jersey. Max heat indices look to stay
in the lower 90s both days at this time at these locations, with
upper 80s elsewhere. Closer to the coast, onshore flow will keep
highs in the lower to middle 80s. Temperatures should be a bit
cooler on Sunday in the lower and middle 80s due to increasing
clouds and higher coverage of showers/storms. Highs should
gradually fall back closer to normal early next week.
Aviation /03z Thursday through Monday/...
high pressure slowly drifts offshore tonight and Thursday.
VFR with west-southwest-SW winds under 10 kt tonight. For Thursday, VFR
continues. SW winds eventually increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts
mostly around 25 kt. Strongest and most southerly winds
expected at kjfk and klga.
Outlook for 00z Friday through Monday...
Thursday night...VFR. Early evening gusts around 25 kt.
Friday-Saturday morning...mainly VFR. Chance of shra/tstm
north and west Friday afternoon/evening. SW gusts 25 kt Fri PM.
Saturday afternoon-Sunday...chance showers/thunderstorms with
sub-VFR conditions. SW gusts 20-25 kt Sat PM.
quiet through Thu morning, then S-SW flow should increase and
bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to all waters, though this may be mainly
near shore across Long Island Sound. Winds may peak briefly at
35 kt across the bays late Thu afternoon, not long enough in
duration to warrant a Gale Warning. Ocean seas should quickly
respond and build to 5-6 ft Thu afternoon.
Winds will diminish over the protected waters after dark on Thu,
while Small Craft Advisory conds continue on the ocean mainly via higher seas of
Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to continue on the ocean on Friday as a
strong SW flow continues. Ocean seas may reach 4 to 6 feet on
Friday, then slowly subside Friday night. A weaker pressure
gradient is expected this weekend and into the beginning of next
week, with quiet conditions on all waters.
no hydrologic impacts expected into the middle of next week.
observations from kfrg (farmingdale, ny) may still be sporadic
due to a communication line outage. Return to full service time
is still unknown.
New York...high rip current risk from 8 am EDT Thursday through Thursday
evening for nyz075-080-081-178-179.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight EDT
Thursday night for anz330-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for