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fxus61 kokx 231502 
afdokx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1102 am EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Synopsis...
waves of low pressure ride along a frontal boundary stalled near
the area through the day and into tonight. High pressure builds
from the west on Wednesday, allowing the boundary to move east
of the area. High pressure remains over the area into the
weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the heaviest of the rain has moved east of the region, with some
drier conditions working into the area. While the bulk of the
precipitation has come to an end, a chance of showers will
continue across the area through this afternoon with the front
just offshore and an upper level trough over the region. As a
result, the Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled.

Under plenty of cloud cover, temperatures will be below normal,
with highs only rising into the mid 70s.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the Atlantic Ocean
beaches today, possibly becoming high this afternoon across
eastern Suffolk County.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Wednesday/...
the final wave along the front passes offshore overnight, but
with the front continuing to gradually shift south, the best
chances for precipitation will be across Long Island and far
southeastern Connecticut. Depending on how close to the coast
the final wave passes, patchy fog development is possible in
areas where winds become light.

Dry conditions return Wednesday morning as the front shifts
farther offshore and high pressure builds in from the west.
Under increasingly sunny skies, temperatures are expected to
rise into the lower 80s.

There is a low risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean
beaches on Wednesday

&&

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
strong polar upper low drops into Hudson Bay during the mid to late
week, gradually shearing the closed low currently over northern
Quebec towards Greenland. The associated deep eastern US troughing
will slowly weaken through the week as a result, with weak upper
ridging signaled for the weekend ahead of the next closed
shearing eastward just north of the Great Lakes.

At the surface, generally tranquil conditions expected, with weak
and elongated high pressure sprawled across the eastern US in wake
of the offshore cold front slowly drifting eastward. A gradual
moderation in temps expected through the period, starting a
seasonable levels with comfortable humidity mid week and rising to
above seasonal with increasing humidity late week into the
weekend.

&&

Aviation /15z Tuesday through Saturday/...
waves of low pressure will ride along a stalled frontal boundary
near the area will produce generally widespread MVFR, with IFR
conditions across eastern terminals. VFR conditions are expected
to return in the middle to late part of the day. There is a
chance of light rain showers throughout the day but rain should
become more scattered this afternoon.

Winds remain fairly tricky initially with multiple boundaries
moving across the area. Winds should generally be from the
north/northeast less than 10kt before turning toward a more
northwesterly direction following the cold front passage.

New York Metro enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90

Kjfk taf comments: amendments likely for changing flight
categories and winds.

The afternoon kjfk haze potential forecast is yellow...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6sm outside of cloud.

Klga taf comments: amendments likely for changing flight
categories and winds.

The afternoon klga haze potential forecast is yellow...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6sm outside of cloud.

Kewr taf comments: amendments likely for changing flight
categories and winds.

The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is yellow...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6sm outside of cloud.

Kteb taf comments: amendments likely for changing flight
categories and winds.

Khpn taf comments: amendments likely for changing flight
categories and winds.

Kisp taf comments: amendments likely for changing flight
categories and winds.

Outlook for 11z Wednesday through Saturday...
Tuesday afternoon...scattered showers, with MVFR or lower
conditions expected.
Wednesday though Saturday...VFR.

&&

Marine...
a front will remain stalled over the waters today, with waves
of low pressure passing along it. With seas on the ocean
waters increasing to 5 feet, a Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect. Seas will begin to subside this evening, although they
are expected to remain at least 5 feet into tonight east of
Moriches Inlet.

Once seas subside tonight, conditions are expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory criteria into the weekend as high pressure builds into
the area.

&&

Hydrology...
the heaviest of the rain has come to an end this morning. As a
result, the Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled.
Only some light precipitation is expected through the remainder
of the day.

No hydrologic impacts are expected through the remainder of the
week.

&&

Equipment...
NYC National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this
evening for anz353-355.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 am EDT
Wednesday for anz350.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Feb
near term...Feb/BC
short term...Feb
long term...Nevada

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