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fxus61 kokx 201621 
afdokx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1221 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Synopsis...
tropical cyclone Jose well southeast of the Twin Forks of Long
Island will slowly move northeast through tonight and will
remain well offshore through Thursday. High pressure builds
over the area Thursday and remains in place through early next
week as Jose weakens and slowly meanders to our southeast.
Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more
details on Jose.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
Jose was located about 200 mikes southeast of the Twin Forks of
Long Island late this morning and will continue moving slowly
to the northeast away from the coast through this afternoon.
Rain bands continue to spiral across portions of southeastern
Connecticut and eastern Long Island and will keep chance
probabilities through this afternoon across the eastern zones.

Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more
details on Jose.

Increasing subsidence on the backside of Jose and from building
upper ridging should prevent the rain from progressing westward.

North to northeast winds will continue with occasional gusts 30
to 35 miles per hour across the Twin Forks.

The main concern today will be from high surf and dangerous rip
currents at ocean beaches. Minor coastal flooding is also
possible.

Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will continue across eastern
Long Island and southeast Connecticut through the day. Further
west, at least partial clearing is anticipated, especially this
afternoon.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/...
Jose will meander south and east of Cape Cod tonight into
Thursday. Winds will weaken during this time, but still remain
gusty across Long Island and southeast Connecticut. This is
where the tightest pressure gradient will be located between
high pressure to the north and west and Jose offshore.
Otherwise, skies will continue to gradually clear overnight and
should largely be mostly sunny on Thursday.

Deep upper ridging builds to the north and west as Jose meanders
offshore. Drier low level air should work in on Thursday as well
with dew points falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Temperatures however will be quite warm, reaching the middle 80s in
NE New Jersey and NYC Metro with upper 70s and lower 80s elsewhere.

Dangerous rip currents will likely continue at Atlantic Ocean
beaches on Thursday.

&&

Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
lots of uncertainty in the long term continues. Most of this is
due to the uncertainty surrounding Jose's ultimate track and
strength. Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts
regarding Jose from the National Hurricane Center.

For now it appears that Jose and/or remnants will meander about
250- 300 miles to the southeast of Montauk Thursday through
this weekend. This would likely keep the associated rain shield
just off to the east. This combined with high pressure over the
area will then likely keep US dry through the period with above-
normal temperatures as heights build aloft. It still may be on
the breezy side, particularly on Thursday and Friday. For Monday
and Tuesday, will continue to keep both periods dry for
consistency while global models attempt to sort out the details
of Jose from run to run.

Rough surf will continue to be likely at least through the end
of this week and may continue into early next week.

&&

Aviation /16z Wednesday through Sunday/...
tropical cyclone Jose will remain off southern New England
coast today.

Bands of showers pivoting to the east may occasionally move into
kgon, however, conditions will more likely remain dry.
Intensity is mainly light although vsby could briefly drop to
MVFR. Otherwise...ceilings are mainly VFR in the city terminals,
although there may be occasional MVFR ceilings at times. Pockets
of MVFR ceilings for khpn and kteb, but expect VFR by 18z.
Ceilings improve to MVFR- VFR this afternoon into the evening
hours for eastern terminals.

Gusty north flow will gradually shift to the north-northwest. Gusts will
continue in the 20-30 kt range at the city terminals, and closer
to 25-35 kt at eastern terminals. Winds gradually decrease
through the evening.

New York Metro enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90

Kjfk taf comments: ceilings may vary between 025-035 through
18z.

The afternoon kjfk haze potential forecast is green, which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Klga taf comments: ceilings may vary between 025-035 through
18z.

The afternoon klga haze potential forecast is green, which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Kewr taf comments: ceilings may vary between 025-035 through
18z.

The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is green, which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Kteb taf comments: MVFR ceilings through 18z, VFR expected
thereafter. VFR ceilings may occur +/- 1-2 hours than is
forecast.

Khpn taf comments: MVFR ceilings through 18z, VFR expected
thereafter. VFR ceilings may occur +/- 1-2 hours than is
forecast.

Kisp taf comments: gusts may be stronger than forecast.

Outlook for 12z Thursday through Sunday...
Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty north winds around 20 kt east of city
terminals.
Saturday-Sunday...VFR.

&&

Marine...
Jose was approximately 150 to 200 nautical miles southeast of
Montauk Point late this morning and was tracking to the
northeast at 6 kt. Jose will meander through Thursday while
weakening. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for
official track and intensity forecasts for Jose.

Winds and gusts on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet
were remaining below tropical storm force and are expected to
remain below through this afternoon. There may be an occasional
gust to 35 kt through this afternoon, especially across the
outer ocean forecast zones.

The Tropical Storm Warning was cancelled and replaced with a
Small Craft Advisory that will continue through Thursday on the
ocean waters. Small craft mariners are advised to remain in
port at least through today with the possibility of 35 kt gusts.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Long Island
bays. The Small Craft Advisory on the eastern sound continues through tonight.

Ocean seas will gradually subside today through tonight. They
will remain elevated into Thursday due to lingering swell from
offshore Jose. Waves may also be close to 5 ft across the far
eastern sound today into tonight.

Uncertainty regarding winds and seas increases from Thursday night
through Sunday due mostly to the uncertainty of Jose's eventual
track and strength during this period. What seems more probable is
that ocean seas remain at Small Craft Advisory levels due to a lingering swell. For
now, it appears that gusts over 25 kt would be possible mainly east
of Moriches Inlet and nearby The Race and gardiner's Bay for
Thursday and Friday before winds subside further and likely remain
below advisory criteria through the weekend.

&&

Hydrology...
no hydrologic problems are anticipated through early next week.

&&

Tides/coastal flooding...
rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells
from Jose, will bring dangerous surf of 6 to 10 ft early today.
This will cause widespread dune erosion (waves hitting base of
dunes), and localized washovers (wave overtopping dunes) through
today.

The high tide cycle has ended across the area with water levels
now falling below minor coastal flood benchmarks. Subsequent
high tide cycles through the week will be impacted by continued
high surf and long period swells as tc Jose becomes nearly
stationary about a couple hundred miles to the southeast of
eastern Long Island. Water levels through the week will approach
or exceed minor coastal flood benchmarks, with the possibility
of localized coastal flooding. The most susceptible location
will be the South Shore back bays of Long Island.

High surf will fall this afternoon into tonight, but remain
rough through the week.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...high rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for nyz075-
080-081-178-179.
High surf advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for nyz075-080-081-
178-179.
Coastal flood advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 am EDT
Thursday for nyz080-178-179.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for anz335-
338-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for anz330-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for anz350-353-
355.

&&

$$

Synopsis...met
near term...met
short term...ds
long term...BC/jc

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