Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kokx 280235
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1035 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017
a cold front will move east of the area overnight as high
pressure builds east from the Ohio Valley. The high passes
south of the area Wednesday afternoon and night. A frontal
system passes north of the region Thursday through Friday night.
A cold front approaches Saturday and moves across Sunday into
Sunday night. The front may linger south of the region early
next week, otherwise weak high pressure returns.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
a weak surface trough moves east of the area, and showers and
thunderstorms have ended. A cold front was moving east of the
Great Lakes and will pass through the region overnight. A few
showers were ahead of the front across upstate New York. However,
there area was stabilizing with less cape, and little forcing.
So expect the remainder of the night to be dry.
High pressure over the Ohio Valley builds east overnight with
clear skies and west/northwest winds.
Low temperatures will remain just below normal level.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/...
upper trough passes offshore early Wednesday with height rises
and plenty of subsidence. Surface high pressure passes to the
south off the mid Atlantic coast in the afternoon. This will
result in another seasonably cool day with low humidity. West-northwest
winds will gradually veer around to the SW in the afternoon.
Highs Wednesday will once again be just below normal, generally
in the upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be a bit milder and
closer to normal Wednesday night.
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents
Wednesday at the ocean beaches.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
high pressure slides offshore Thursday. A weak shortwave will
move through Thursday evening and into Thursday night,
resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
Unsettled weather expected Friday and through the weekend as
multiple shortwaves are expected to impact the region. There is
a chance for showers/thunderstorms through this period but
mainly with peak heating during the afternoon/evening hours.
High pressure builds briefly on Monday then showers may develop
once again on Tuesday as the next frontal system approaches the
area from the northwest.
Temperatures start off near Thursday but then trend warmer for
the rest of the forecast period. It will be getting warmer and
more humid. The temperatures will average about 3-5 degrees
above normal. Temperatures are forecast to be well into the 80s
Thursday through Monday with some locations in the New York Metro and
northeast New Jersey reaching near 90 for Friday and Saturday.
Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/...
high pressure builds into the region through Wednesday.
VFR tonight and Wednesday. West-northwest winds tonight under 10 kt
eventually back west-southwest to SW weds aftn, increasing 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt.
Outlook for 00z Thursday through Sunday...
Thursday...VFR. SW g20-25kt aftn/evening. Chance of an evening
Friday...mainly VFR. SW g20kt aftn/evening. Chance of mainly
Saturday...mainly VFR. SW g20kt aftn/evening. Chance of
Sunday...mainly VFR. Chance of shra/tstm.
winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Thursday through Friday
night for all ocean waters. Ocean seas are forecast to linger in
Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday with waves near 5 ft
particularly east of Fire Island Inlet. Much of the remainder of the
weekend will have below Small Craft Advisory conditions
no hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next
observations from kfrg (farmingdale, ny) may be sporadic.
Observations from khpn (white plains ny) and khvn (new Haven
ct) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to
an FAA communication line outage. Return to full service time