Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kokx 192332
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
632 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018
high pressure passes to the south through Saturday, while
deepening low pressure tracks across eastern Canada. A weak cold
front will pass through the area Saturday night. High pressure
will build to the south Sunday. A back door cold front will pass
through Sunday night, then return north as a warm front on
Monday ahead of a strong frontal system for Monday night into
Tuesday. High pressure will return for mid week and remain
through the end of the week.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
near term winds, sky, temperatures, and dew points were updated
for current conditions. The forecast remains on target through
Outside of some cirrus clouds this evening, it will be quiet as
deepening low pressure tracks across eastern Canada and high
pressure passes off the southeast coast. This will keep the area
under a southwest flow and a milder night, about 10 degrees
warmer. Lows will range from mid 20s well inland, to the lower
and mid 30s.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...
southwest winds ramp up quickly on Saturday with gusts 20 to 30
mph, highest near the coast. A downslope west-SW flow combined
with strong warm advection will allow highs to get into the
upper 40s and lower 50s. Preferred to stay a few degrees above
Trailing cold front works across the area Saturday with
diminishing winds as high pressure builds in from the west. Lows
will still be above normal by about 7 degrees.
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
dry and unseasonably mild conditions expected on Sunday with
temperatures in the mid 40s. A cold front approaches from the
west Monday before tracking across the area Monday night into
Showers are expected Monday morning ahead of the boundary with
the potential of some wintry mix mainly across interior
locations. Moderate to heavy rain will then overspread across
the area Monday night into Tuesday.
High pressure builds in behind the frontal system on Tuesday.
Dry and more seasonable temperatures expected for the middle of
the week through Friday.
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure remains centered to the southwest of the region
through Sat. A weak frontal passage occurs Sat ngt.
VFR through the taf period.
SW winds thru Sat veer to the W Sat ngt behind the fropa. Gusts
to around 25 kt at times aft 14z til around 22z or later.
... Metro enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90
Kjfk taf comments: no unscheduled amendments are expected.
Klga taf comments: no unscheduled amendments are expected.
Kewr taf comments: no unscheduled amendments are expected.
Kteb taf comments: no unscheduled amendments are expected.
Khpn taf comments: no unscheduled amendments are expected.
Kisp taf comments: no unscheduled amendments are expected.
Outlook for 00z Sunday through Wednesday...
Saturday ngt...VFR. Winds veering to the WNW.
Monday...chance of MVFR or lower in -shra. S winds g20kt late day.
Tuesday...IFR in rain. Low level wind shear. S winds g25kt morning, west winds g30-
Wednesday...VFR. Gusty west winds.
winds and gusts were lowered a few knots as a rather weak
pressure gradient force still remains across the waters as
slowly deepening low pressure remains to the north of the Great
Lakes and high pressure remains over the forecast waters. Also,
gusts were minimal with little mixing at this time.
With deepening low pressure passing to the north through
Saturday and high pressure tracking off to the South, West-southwest winds
will gradually ramp up through Saturday morning with Small Craft Advisory
conditions developing on the ocean waters tonight and the
remaining waters on Saturday. Occasional gale force gusts will
be possible on the ocean waters through early afternoon. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will likely subside quickly by Saturday evening as
high pressure builds in from the west and low pressure passes
east of the Canadian Maritimes. Seas above 5 ft are likely to
linger into the first half of the night.
Below Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Sunday and
Monday. Winds and ocean seas expected to increase to Small Craft
Advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday ahead of approaching
cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely continue
Tuesday night through Wednesday, with potential for a period of
a frontal system passing through late Monday night into Tuesday has
the potential to bring around inch of rain. No significant
hydrologic issues are anticipated at this time.
NYC National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 6 am to 6 PM EST Saturday for anz330-
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for anz355.