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fxus61 kokx 221154 
afdokx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
654 am EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure will continue to move offshore today, as a weak
cold front dissipates as it crosses the area early this morning.
High pressure centered well off the Carolina coast will
influence the weather through Thursday. A Spring-like pattern for
the end of this week will transition into a more seasonal
pattern for the second half of the weekend into the beginning of
next week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
light patchy precipitation is expected this morning across the
local area. Precipitation is very light with reports of only a
trace. Will keep mention of slight chance pops across the cwa
through this morning. Otherwise, minor adjustments were made to
temperatures and dewpoints to reflect latest observations.

High pressure is expected to be located off the middle Atlantic
coast today. A light southwest flow across the area will allow
temperatures to climb into the 50s to around 60 degrees today.

Dry weather with continued southwest flow expected tonight. The
increase in low level moisture may result in the development of
low clouds and patchy fog late tonight. Low temperatures
will be in the upper 30s inland and low to mid 40s along the
coast.

&&

Short term /Thursday/...
high pressure remains offshore on Thursday with southwest flow
across the area. Temperatures will continue to be mild with
highs on Thursday in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
models in fairly good agreement with East Coast ridging to end the
week...ahead of a Pacific trough sliding into the Central Plains Friday
and then phasing with a polar low to the south of Hudson Bay on Sat.
The shearing trough slides through the NE on Sunday...with generally
zonal flow heading into early next week.

Unseasonably mild conditions continue Fri/Sat in deep SW flow ahead
of the pac trough and associated strong low pressure moving through
the central US and into the Great Lakes. Although temps will be
above normal on Friday...a Pacific shortwave and associated low pressure
moving through southern Quebec Thursday night will push a cold front
through the region Thu night/Fri. Latest GFS/NAM and high res
solutions indicating this cold front remaining south of the region
through Fri night...with a Canadian maritime influence on the
region. This would result in stratus and temps holding in the 50s
for much of the region on Fri. Have trended forecast in that
direction based on climatology and better resolving NAM/high-res
solutions. With weak warm advection over the frontal boundary to the
south...and weak shortwave energy moving through aloft...a few
showers possible on Fri. If front remains to the south of the region
Fri night...an increasing chance for stratus...drizzle and fog could
be expected Friday night into Sat morning as low-levels moisten and
isentropic lift begins to increases.

Models in decent agreement with Pacific upper low shearing into the
northern stream low on Saturday...with associated trough and frontal
system swinging towards the region late in the day and then though
Sat night. Warm front should be able to gradually move north on Sat
with strengthening llj...with temps climbing back into the 60s on
gusty southerly flow by late in the day. Main rain activity appears
to be along and possibly just in wake of the cold front late Sat
into Sat eve as 40-50 kt llj and approaching shortwave energy
interact with +2-3 std of Gulf moisture and weak elevated
instability. Potential for a brief period of moderate/heavy rain and
even some embedded thunder with activity along the front. Heaviest
activity though looks to be to the north and west of the region with
stronger shortwave forcing and better .

In the wake of the front...a dry and cooler airmass will build in
for Sat night/Sunday on gusty northwest flow. Temps should cool to near
seasonable levels for Sunday.

Lack of model consensus continues for Monday and Tuesday with
generally weak northern stream and pac energy moving through the
region in a near zonal upper flow. Signals for an associated weak
system with light precip to move through the NE/mid Atlantic...but
at this point does not look like much of an event. Thermal profile
supporting would support wintry precip if precip was heavy enough.

Otherwise moderating conditions heading towards midweek...with
considerable model spread in timing/intensity of next system.

&&

Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
a weak cold front will dissipate across the region this morning.
Meanwhile, high pressure remains off the mid Atlantic coast
into Thursday morning.

A few sprinkles or a light rain shower are possible prior to 15z
this morning in association with the dissipating front. Any
rain should be brief, with northern terminals having the best
chance of seeing any precipitation.

VFR conditions through the daylight hours today will give way to
MVFR or lower after sunset as fog and/or low stratus begin to
develop. MVFR visibilities initially develop after 03z at
coastal terminals before spreading inland around 06z. After
this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty related to the
specific timing, location, and duration of any lower
ceilings/visibilities Thursday morning. The best chance for IFR
or lower conditions appears to be between 09-15z before
conditions gradually improve during the late morning.

Light southerly flow during the day today will give way to light
and variable winds at all terminals tonight.

New York Metro enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90

Kjfk taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected during the
daylight hours today. Uncertainty exists in the timing of developing
MVFR or lower conditions tonight.

Klga taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected during the
daylight hours today. Uncertainty exists in the timing of developing
MVFR or lower conditions tonight.

Kewr taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected during the
daylight hours today. Uncertainty exists in the timing of developing
MVFR or lower conditions tonight.

The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is yellow...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6sm outside of cloud.

Kteb taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected during the
daylight hours today. Uncertainty exists in the timing of developing
MVFR or lower conditions tonight.

Khpn taf comments: a brief sprinkle or light rain shower is possible
this morning. Uncertainty exists in the timing of developing MVFR
or lower conditions tonight.

Kisp taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected during the
daylight hours today. Uncertainty exists in the timing of developing
MVFR or lower conditions tonight.

Outlook for 12z Thursday through Sunday...
Thursday-Friday...MVFR or lower in stratus and fog.
Saturday...MVFR likely with rain and a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Gusty S winds.
Sunday...VFR...gusty northwest winds.

&&

Marine...
a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters will limit winds
to 10 kt or less and seas to remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels through Thursday.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels from Thursday night through Friday night. Small Craft
Advisory criteria is likely over the weekend associated with the
approach and passage of a cold front.

&&

Hydrology...
no hydrologic impacts are expected through Thursday. 1/4/ to 3/4
inch of rain...with locally up to an inch is possible late
Saturday into Saturday night. No significant hydrological
impacts are expected.

&&

Climate...
the following are record maximum minimum temperatures for
Thursday February 23, 2017 along with the forecast minimum
temperature.

Record Max minimum temperature forecast minimum temperature
------------------------------ ----------------------------
Central Park........55 (1985) 46
LaGuardia...........54 (1985) 46
Kennedy.............47 (1990) 43
Islip...............46 (1990) 40
Newark..............51 (1985) 45
Bridgeport..........40 (1985) 40

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...fig/NV
near term...fig
short term...fig
long term...Nevada

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