Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1249 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
deepening low pressure off the coast of Maine will track north
through Maine and into eastern Canada today through Sunday.
A cold front will move southeast across the area early Monday
morning followed by Canadian high pressure through Wednesday. Low
pressure will move slowly east toward the area Thursday through
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
deepening low pressure was off the Maine coast with pressure rises
increasing across southern and western zones. Winds and gusts
have been increasing in response, with sustained winds nearing
Wind Advisory levels. Will not see best mixing with the light rain
and cloud cover inhibiting heating. Likely reach advisory levels
late this afternoon into this evening.
Wrap-around moisture was moving through with areas of light rain.
Main area of rain has lifted north of the Connecticut zones
quicker than forecast. And next area more scattered. So have
lowered probabilities back to likely with the rain ending this
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
any leftover showers tapper off from south to north tonight as
moisture and forcing lift northward with the low. Gusty west winds
up to 50 mph, strongest at the coast, will continue as the low
slowly lifts to the north. Wind Advisory remains up overnight for
Li/NYC/se CT. Winds during the day on Sunday will gusts up to 40
mph for most locations.
Upper trough lifts across eastern Canada on Sunday with a gradually
weakening surface low. High pressure builds east across the
Lows tonight will be near seasonable levels as gusty winds
inhibit strong radiational cooling.
Highs on Sunday rebound to near normal with highs in the mid 50s
to lower 60s.
Clipper low approaches Sunday night and sends a cold front
through the area by daybreak Monday. There is decent lift in the
85h-500h layer with a good chance of showers.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
Monday through Wed will be quite cool as a building Canadian high
pressure system moves east across New England, bringing overnight
low temps into the 30s across most of the local area, even across
parts of NYC on Tuesday night. Grab those jackets.
Thu-Fri will bring our next chance of rain as low lvl warm air
advection increases between the departing Canadian high and a low
approaching across the Great Lakes.
Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
low pressure deepens as it moves into northern New England and
southeast Canada with high pressure building to the southwest.
Increasing northwest flow through the day with sustained winds becoming
20-25 kt late this morning into the afternoon. Gusts around 35 kt
are expected this afternoon with some gusts reaching 40 kt
possible late this afternoon and evening, especially near the
MVFR conditions will improve to VFR in the 16 to 18z time frame,
with ceilings around 035 after 18z.
VFR conditions and gusty northwest flow continue through tonight.
Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday...
Sunday...VFR. West-northwest-northwest winds g25-35kt likely.
Sunday night-Tuesday night...VFR, northwest winds g20-25kt possible.
An isolated shower possible Sunday night into Mon morning.
updated the winds and seas forecast through early this afternoon,
based on current conditions and track of low pressure off the
Maine coast, forecast to deepen and track north through today.
Westerly gales develop across all waters today as the low deepens
and tracks north.
Gales are forecast to continue through the day Sunday. Wind gusts
may briefly drop below 25 kt Sunday night before a cold front passes
early Monday morning. Wind gusts of 25-30kt are likely Monday
through Tuesday. Winds and seas are forecast to decrease on
Wednesday as high pressure moves across the area.
additional rainfall today is expected to be in the range of a
quarter to half an inch with isolated higher amounts. The highest
amounts will be generally over the husdon valley and into interior
Sunday night...scattered showers with rainfall of less than one
tenth of an inch is forecast with the passage of a cold front.
Thursday through Friday...a widespread rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch
is possible with the approach of low pressure from the Great
CT...Wind Advisory until 6 am EDT Sunday for ctz007-008-011-012.
New York...Wind Advisory until 6 am EDT Sunday for nyz072>075-078>081-
Marine...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for anz330-335-338-340-345-