Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kokx 240905
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
505 am EDT Sat Jun 24 2017
a cold front and low pressure approaches and moves across
the area this morning. High pressure builds to our southwest
Sunday into Monday. A weak cold front will move through our area
later Monday. High pressure builds towards the mid Atlantic
coast Tuesday and Wednesday, before moving offshore Thursday.
Unsettled weather returns for the end of the week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
collab with wpc and Storm Prediction Center this busy morning. Near term concerns
are focused on convection rapidly approaching the area. This
activity expected to impact the area early this morning, with
showers/tstms passing before noon eastern zones.
Flash flooding a concern, especially NE NJ, and NYC Metro. Warm
rainfall processes, and accum rates likely to out perform model
data. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible, with
overall quantitative precipitation forecast up to an inch, locally higher.
In addition, increasing low level jet and potential backing of
low level winds ahead of remnant low could aid stronger storm
development early this morning. Will monitor for isolated gusty
winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Once this activity passes, westerly flow and sunshine will allow
temps to rise quickly, with 80s to near 90 anticipated. Leaned
toward or even edged higher end of guidance slightly.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development today.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/...
for tonight, a secondary cold front moves across which will
result in winds becoming more northerly late after its passage.
Dry conditions, light winds and continued mostly clear
conditions will result in radiational cooling. A vast range of
lows will be seen in the region from upper 50s in rural inland
sections to lower 70s in parts of NYC from the met guidance.
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
dry conditions expected on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds
towards the mid Atlantic coast. Expect high temperatures to be in
the low to mid 80s on Sunday. A weak surface cold front will affect
the local area Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The system will not
have a great deal of moisture associated with it, but cooler
temperatures aloft may spark off a shower or T-storm late Monday
into early Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are
expected to be in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s.
High pressure continues to build towards the area on Wednesday and
slowly moves offshore on Friday. A few showers are possible Friday
afternoon. Temperatures will start out in the upper 70s to near 80
on Wednesday then slowly increase to mid to upper 80s by Friday.
Aviation /09z Saturday through Wednesday/...
a line of showers now spreading across city terminals. Embedded
thunder possible (best chance for kewr, kjfk, and kisp). The
main concern with any heavier showers early this morning is for
locally heavy rain which can lower visibilities down to IFR for
a few hours, with the best window for this from 9 to 13z. Front
timing appears to be sped up a bit, so have adjusted wind shift
and end of showers up by an hour or so.
Winds will switch to west, then briefly just north of west with
frontal passage which should be around 12-13z for city
terminals. VFR for the remainder of the taf period after front
passes. For a brief time for the late morning and early
afternoon winds may go closer to just north of west (close to
300 or 310 magnetic). Winds gust to around 20 knots for city
terminals until 22z or thereabout.
Outlook for 00z Sunday through Wednesday...
Saturday night-Sunday night...VFR. Northwest wind early Saturday
night, otherwise west wind through Sunday night.
Monday-Tuesday...VFR. A slight chance of shra/tsra Monday
afternoon, and a chance of shra/tsra on Tuesday.
rough ocean condition S are expected today into tonight. Gusty
south to southwest, then west winds expected.
Seas remain elevated before subsiding tonight. Sub Small Craft Advisory winds on
non-ocean waters are expected through tonight.
Conditions across the area waters are expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels Sunday through the middle of the
the threat for minor urban and poor drainage flooding with
localized flash flooding continues this morning. Total rain
expected is 0.5 to 1 inch with locally higher amounts. With
tropical moisture from the remnants of Cindy getting entrained
along the front, heavy rain likely this morning.
There are no hydrologic impacts expected Sunday and through the
end of the week.
astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the
evening high tide cycles.
Less than 1 ft of surge is needed during these evening high tide
cycles for minor flooding, and in some cases less then 1/2 ft.
The expected S/SW flow is not favorable for surge, but a
background anomaly will likely be enough for minor coastal
flooding of the most vulnerable coastal locales along the South
Shore bays of western Long Island, along Jamaica Bay, and along
western Long Island Sound during this time.
kokx weather radar is scheduled for maintenance starting today June
23rd for a period of 3 days.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for anz355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Sunday for anz350-353.
near term...precipitable water
short term...precipitable water