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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
1037 am EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

deepening low pressure off the coast of Maine will track north
through Maine and into eastern Canada today through Sunday.
A cold front will move southeast across the area early Monday
morning followed by Canadian high pressure through Wednesday. Low
pressure will move slowly east toward the area Thursday through


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
deepening low pressure was off the Maine coast this morning with
the associated cold front east of the forecast area and winds
across the region have shifted to the west to northwest.

Wrap-around moisture was moving through the western and
southwestern zones this morning and will slowly move to the
north to northeast as the low moves into southeastern Canada.
Updated the probabilities to reflect the current conditions with
100% chances where rain is occurring. Also converted to stratiform

High temperatures for today occurred soon after 100 am EDT.
Temperatures during the daylight hours will hold steady or slowly

More importantly though, will be strong west to northwest winds
on the backside of deepening low pressure system. Pressure rises
this afternoon and an increasing pressure gradient will result in
the potential for gusts up to 50 mph across Li/NYC/se CT, and 35
to 40 mph elsewhere. The top of the mixed layer approaches 50 kt
near the coast late this afternoon. Always difficult to estimate
how much mixes down to the surface will occur, however, strong
cold advection and decent pressure rises support a high percentage
of these winds transferring down to the surface. Some of the
higher elevations across the lower Hudson Valley and NE New Jersey may
even experience occasional gusts up to 50 mph as well. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect for NYC/Long Island/southeast CT, where the
highest pressure rises occur this afternoon into early this
evening. In addition, the highest sustained winds are expected
across the coastal sections, maximizing offshore of Long Island.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
any leftover showers tapper off from south to north tonight as
moisture and forcing lift northward with the low. Gusty west winds
up to 50 mph, strongest at the coast, will continue as the low
slowly lifts to the north. Wind Advisory remains up overnight for
Li/NYC/se CT. Winds during the day on Sunday will gusts up to 40
mph for most locations.

Upper trough lifts across eastern Canada on Sunday with a gradually
weakening surface low. High pressure builds east across the

Lows tonight will be near seasonable levels as gusty winds
inhibit strong radiational cooling.

Highs on Sunday rebound to near normal with highs in the mid 50s
to lower 60s.

Clipper low approaches Sunday night and sends a cold front
through the area by daybreak Monday. There is decent lift in the
85h-500h layer with a good chance of showers.


Long term /Monday through Friday/...
Monday through Wed will be quite cool as a building Canadian high
pressure system moves east across New England, bringing overnight
low temps into the 30s across most of the local area, even across
parts of NYC on Tuesday night. Grab those jackets.

Thu-Fri will bring our next chance of rain as low lvl warm air
advection increases between the departing Canadian high and a low
approaching across the Great Lakes.


Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/...
low pressure deepens as it moves into northern New England and
southeast Canada with high pressure building to the southwest.

Increasing northwest flow through the day with sustained winds becoming
20-25 kt late this morning into the afternoon. Gusts around 35 kt
are expected this afternoon with some gusts reaching 40 kt
possible late this afternoon and evening, especially near the

MVFR conditions will improve to VFR in the 16 to 18z time frame,
with ceilings around 035 after 18z.

VFR conditions and gusty northwest flow continue through tonight.

Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday...
Sunday...VFR. West-northwest-northwest winds g25-35kt likely.
Sunday night-Tuesday night...VFR, northwest winds g20-25kt possible.
An isolated shower possible Sunday night into Mon morning.


updated the winds and seas forecast through early this afternoon,
based on current conditions and track of low pressure off the
Maine coast, forecast to deepen and track north through today.

Westerly gales develop across all waters today as the low deepens
and tracks north.

Gales are forecast to continue through the day Sunday. Wind gusts
may briefly drop below 25 kt Sunday night before a cold front passes
early Monday morning. Wind gusts of 25-30kt are likely Monday
through Tuesday. Winds and seas are forecast to decrease on
Wednesday as high pressure moves across the area.


additional rainfall today is expected to be in the range of a
quarter to half an inch with isolated higher amounts. The highest
amounts will be generally over the husdon valley and into interior
southern Connecticut.

Sunday night...scattered showers with rainfall of less than one
tenth of an inch is forecast with the passage of a cold front.

Thursday through Friday...a widespread rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch
is possible with the approach of low pressure from the Great


Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 am EDT Sunday for
New York...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 am EDT Sunday for
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for anz330-335-338-340-345-


near term...met
short term...dw
long term...gc

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