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fxus61 kokx 292339 
afdokx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
739 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure will remain over the region through Thursday. Low
pressure will impact the area Thursday night through Saturday.
High pressure builds in for Sunday through Monday night.
Another area of low pressure affects the region Tuesday. High
pressure builds back on Wednesday.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
high pressure continues to build into the region tonight. Expect
mostly clear skies and diminishing winds, resulting in good
radiational cooling conditions late. Overnight lows will fall
into the upper 20s and 30s. A mav/met/ecs blend was in good
agreement and used for temperatures.

&&

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
high pressure drifts across the forecast area on Thursday,
resulting in fair weather and light winds. Expect mid and high
clouds to move in from the west during the afternoon and
evening. A blend of the guidance, which was in good agreement,
was used for temperatures.

Clouds continue to thicken and lower Thursday night as low
pressure approaches the region. Pops gradually increase
overnight. Will cap pops at high chance for now. Precipitation
will generally be plain rain, however a wintry mix may be
possible across the lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut.

Temperatures on Thursday will only reach the upper 40s and
lower 50s. Lows Thursday night will fall into the 30s.

&&

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
low pressure system will track east on Friday. As this storm
approaches, precipitation will spread across the area from west to
east. Rain may come down moderate to heavy at times Friday into
Friday night as a secondary low develops off the mid Atlantic
coast. This storm may produce anywhere between 1 to 1.5 inches
of rainfall from Friday into Saturday morning. While there could
be some urban and poor drainage nuisance flooding, impacts on
rivers and streams is not expected.

After some lingering showers Saturday morning, surface high pressure
builds in thereafter, keeping the area dry through the rest of the
weekend into Monday. High pressure moves offshore Monday night,
allowing for another low to affect the area Tuesday.

Temperatures during the long term will be seasonable, with the
exception of Friday and Saturday.

&&

Aviation /23z Wednesday through Monday/...
high pressure builds in through Thursday with low pressure
approaching Thursday night. VFR conditions are expected through
the taf period.

The gusts to near 18-20 kt with the northwest flow will subside this
evening with any gusts occurring mainly before 03z. Northwest flow
drops to 10 kt or less late this evening with sea breezes
developing Thursday afternoon. Some interior terminals will have
winds become light and variable in direction.



New York Metro enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90

Kjfk taf comments: gust end time could be off by an hour. Sea
breeze timing Thursday could be off by 1-2 hours.

Klga taf comments: gust end time could be off by an hour. Sea
breeze timing Thursday could be off by 1-2 hours.

Kewr taf comments: gust end time could be off by an hour. Sea
breeze timing Thursday could be off by 1-2 hours.

Kteb taf comments: gust end time could be off by an hour. Sea
breeze timing Thursday could be off by 1-2 hours.

Khpn taf comments: sea breeze timing Thursday could be off by
1-2 hours.

Kisp taf comments: gust end time could be off by an hour. Sea
breeze timing Thursday could be off by 1-2 hours.



Outlook for 00z Friday through Monday...
Thursday night...mainly VFR, chance of rain/snow mix inland and
rain near coast, highest chances overnight.
Friday...MVFR/IFR conditions developing in rain for for Metro
terminals, with IFR in wintry mix possible for northern
terminals in the morning. MVFR/IFR conditions in rain in the
afternoon. Southeast winds g20 knots at the coast.
Friday night and Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain with gradual
improvement by Saturday afternoon/evening. East/NE winds g20-30kt
at coastal terminals.
Sunday-Monday...VFR.

&&

Marine...
northerly winds continue tonight as low pressure tracks out to
sea and high pressure builds into the region. Winds this evening
and overnight are expected to generally remain below Small Craft Advisory levels,
however a few isolated gusts to 25 kt may be possible,
especially on the eastern waters. Winds and seas will remain
below small craft conditions through Thursday night.

Winds should remain below 25 kt through Friday morning. An
approaching frontal system will increase the pressure gradient
across the waters and bring wind gusts along the ocean waters to 25
kt to 30 kt Friday afternoon into Saturday. Peconic and gardiner's
bays may see gusts 25 kt to 30 kt late Friday night into Saturday,
while the back bays may see 25 kt gusts Friday night. Winds diminish
Saturday night, and remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria for the rest of the
long term.

Waves build to 5 to 8 ft on the ocean Friday night into Saturday
morning, then diminish Saturday night, but should remain above 5 ft
through Sunday morning. Thereafter, waves remain below 5 ft through
the rest of the long term.

&&

Hydrology...
between 1 and 1.5 inches of quantitative precipitation forecast is possible from Thursday night
through Saturday morning. While there could be some urban and poor
drainage nuisance flooding, impacts on rivers and streams is not
expected.

&&

Tides/coastal flooding...
an approaching low pressure system will likely bring some minor
coastal flood impacts to vulnerable coastal communities during
the Friday night high tide. Tidal departures of 1 to 1 1/2 ft
are needed to reach minor flood levels and 2 to 2 1/2 ft for
moderate flood levels during that time.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...BC/fig
near term...BC/pw
short term...British Columbia
long term...fig

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