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000 
FXUS61 KOKX 202247
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
647 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical cyclone Jose well southeast of the twin forks of Long 
Island will slowly move northeast through tonight, then meander
well offshore through Thursday night. Meanwhile, high pressure 
builds over the area Thursday and remains in place through early
next week as Jose weakens and slowly meanders to our southeast.
Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more 
details on Jose.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Jose was located about 200 miles southeast of the twin forks of
Long Island early this evening and will continue moving slowly 
to the northeast away from the coast through tonight. Please 
refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on 
Jose.

Rain bands continue to spiral just east of the forecast area,
however, with a ridge building to the west and northwest, the 
rain has been diminishing as the rain bands move into areas of 
increasing subsidence. So, will continue with a dry forecast for
tonight. Ridging and surface high pressure will build in 
through tonight. The cloud shield associated with Jose will 
remain across much of the area.

Dangerous rip currents will continue at Atlantic ocean beaches 
tonight, with high surf through late this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge and surface high will build into the area early
Thursday and then remain into Thursday night. Jose will continue
to meander well to the southeast of the area into Thursday, and
with the ridge in place late Thursday Jose is expected to begin
slowly moving to the west with weak steering currents. By late
Thursday night rain bands may begin to move back into the far
eastern sections and will again have slight to low end chance
probabilities over the far eastern sections toward Friday
morning. Again, please refer to National Hurricane Center 
products for more details on Jose.

Dangerous rip currents will continue at Atlantic ocean beaches 
through Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The center of Jose's remnants are expected to meander about 
150-200 miles to the SE of Montauk Friday through the weekend. 
Associated showers may be able to sneak into eastern LI and SE 
CT Friday and Saturday, but with the system weakening further, 
will keep with a dry forecast for Saturday night and Sunday 
through Monday. Cannot completely rule out showers for these 
periods as well as Jose's remnants may linger around. Clouds may
prevent high temperatures from rising above normal levels east 
of the city for Friday and Saturday, but all other areas 
probably see highs above normal. A better chance of high 
temperatures above normal for all areas then follows for Sunday 
and Monday with temperatures trying to rise aloft. Rough surf 
will continue to be likely at least through the end of this week
and may continue into early next week.

The interaction between whatever is left of Jose with Hurricane
Maria adds a great deal of uncertainty for Tuesday and 
Wednesday's forecast. Will introduce a slight chance of showers 
for Tuesday, then bump them up into the chance category for 
Wednesday as Maria draws a little closer. 

Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more 
details on Jose and Maria.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tropical cyclone Jose will meander off the southern New England
coast through Friday.

SCT to BKN low end VFR everywhere except KSWF, KISP, and KGON. 
MVFR Ceilings will continue to improve to VFR into tonight for 
these terminals, but will do so slowly.

Winds will be out of the N to NNW. Gusts will continue in the 
20-30 kt range at the city terminals, and closer to 25-35 kt at 
eastern terminals. Winds gradually decrease through the evening,
with gusts dropping off after 00Z in the city and after 08Z for
KISP. KGON will likely gust through the TAF period. Winds will 
gust again on Thursday, but will not be as strong, generally 
20-30 kt, with the highest gusts for eastern terminals.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can 
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts may end +/- 2 hours than is forecast.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies 
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts may end +/- 2 hours than is forecast.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies 
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts may end +/- 2 hours than is forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies 
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts may end +/- 2 hours than is forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts may end +/- 2 hours than is forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: MVFR ceilings through 22Z. Gust of 25-30 kt 
through 22Z as well. Occasional gusts to near 30 kt possible through 
22Z. Timing of gusts ending and VFR ceilings may be +/- 2 hour than 
is forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty N winds 20 to 25 kt on Thursday, 
with higher gusts over eastern terminals. Slightly lower gusts 
for Friday.
.Saturday-Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Jose was approximately 200 nautical miles southeast of Montauk 
Point early this evening. The storm will continue to track 
slowly to the northeast through tonight and into early Thursday 
before meandering Thursday afternoon, and then begin to track 
westward late Thursday into Thursday night. Please refer to the 
National Hurricane Center for official track and intensity 
forecasts for Jose.

The small craft advisory on NY Harbor, Western LI Sound, and the
south shore bays has been allowed to expire early this evening.
Gusts should remain below 25 kt on these waters. On the ocean 
waters, the small craft advisory continues through Thursday 
night. Gusts will however remain below 25 kt on the ocean west
of Fire Island Inlet tonight. To the east, small craft gusts 
remain through Thursday night. The small craft west of Moriches 
Inlet will likely eventually be converted to a hazardous seas 
advisory as seas remain above 5 ft through at least Thursday 
night.

On the eastern Long Island bays and eastern Long Island Sound,
small craft gusts remain into Thursday and may need to be 
extended into Thursday night. This will depend on the track of 
Jose.

There is some uncertainty regarding winds and seas Friday 
through early next week due to Jose. What seems more probable is
that ocean seas remain at SCA levels due to a lingering swell. 
For now, it appears that gusts over 25 kt would be possible 
mainly east of Fire Island Inlet and over eastern LI Sound and 
the eastern bays of LI for Friday and Saturday. Winds would then
weaken thereafter as Jose weakens further.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are anticipated through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Episodes of minor coastal flooding will likely continue through
the week. Subsequent high tide cycles through the week will be 
impacted by continued rough surf and long period swells as TC 
Jose becomes nearly stationary about a couple hundred miles to 
the southeast of eastern Long Island. Water levels through the 
week will approach or exceed minor coastal flood benchmarks, 
with the possibility of localized moderate coastal flooding. 
The most susceptible locations will be the south shore back 
bays of Long Island. 

High surf will fall through tonight, but remain rough through 
the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for NYZ080-178-
     179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ330-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC

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