Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kokx 251336
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
936 am EDT sun Jun 25 2017
a series of weak low pressure troughs forming over land each
day will move offshore each night through Tuesday night, while
strong high pressure remains well to the southwest. The high
will eventually build in on Wednesday. A warm front will
approach on Thursday and move through at night. A cold front
approaching from the north on Friday will stall nearby into the
weekend, with unsettled weather.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
forecast on track this morning with just a few minor adjustments
to reflect current observations.
Aloft, shortwave over the Great Lakes region this morning looks to
pass well to the north through the day.
At the sfc, weak trough develops this afternoon, with SW or S
flow ahead of it, and westerly flow behind it.
Plenty sunshine this morning will give way to a few afternoon
clouds, with generally dry conditions. Higher resolution models
continue to indicate isolated shower activity this afternoon,
but with weak instability and meager moisture and lift, do
believe anything would be isolated.
Temperatures look quite seasonable, and a few degrees lower than
yesterday. Readings in the 80s expected across the region, with
locations east of the trough slightly cooler due to onshore
winds this afternoon.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Suffolk
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/...
sfc trough moves east tonight, with winds veering to the west/NW.
Yet another weak sfc trough develops over the area Monday.
Aloft, heights fall to the west of the area as next shortwave moves
across the Great Lakes region.
Any shower weakens this evening, with dry conditions anticipated
tonight. On Monday, more of the same, with morning sunshine giving
way to a few afternoon clouds. Cannot rule out an isolated shower
Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast
tonight and Monday, with lower humidity levels.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
looks fairly dry with comfortable humidity and slightly below normal
temperatures through mid week. A warm front approaches on Thursday
as low pressure passes across southern Canada. In its wake, a cold
front sags south into New York state on Friday. The front becomes
stationary near the region into the weekend - which appears will be
Upper trough axis approaches Tuesday, passing Tuesday night. Perhaps
a tad more instability Tuesday and pseudo cold frontal passage could trigger a
Wednesday is dry and then warm advection starts in on Thursday.
Frontal boundary in the region, or just north, on Friday and have
pops in for thunderstorms and rain. Looks to remain unsettled through the Holiday
weekend at this time.
Temps come back to near seasonable on Thursday and then go above
Friday into the weekend. No heat issues foreseen though.
Aviation /14z Sunday through Thursday/...
high pressure well to our south and west will be in control for
the most part through the taf period. A weak disturbance well to
the northwest will approach the region late today, more so for far northwest
terminals (kswf and khpn). Slight chance of a late day, evening
shower or thunderstorm for these far northwest terminals, but
confidence is too low to put in taf at this time.
VFR thru the taf period. Timing and northern extent of wind
changes only at moderate confidence level. Sea breezes are
expected to develop Sunday late morning/afternoon, but exact
timing of onset may be delayed by an hour or two from what is in
tafs. Locations like kbdr, and klga confidence is lower here
regarding seabreeze onset and duration this afternoon.
Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday...
Monday...VFR. Coastal sea breezes expected, slight chance of
late day shra/tstm for northwest terminals.
Tuesday...VFR. Chance to slight chance of late day shra/tstm.
seas have fallen below 5 ft on the ocean waters. All small craft
advisories have been cancelled.
Tranquil conditions today and tonight.
For the longer term, tranquil on Monday and continuing through
Thursday morning. Ocean seas will likely build to Small Craft Advisory criteria
late Thursday and continue as such on Friday.
no hydrologic impacts expected through at least the end of next
astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the
nighttime high tide cycles. Will need to watch high tide cycle
tonight for localized minor coastal flooding. Main area to watch
would be across the Nassau South Shore bays, where water levels
should briefly touch or barely exceed minor thresholds.
* the kokx Doppler weather radar (wsr-88d) has returned to
* Surface observations from kfrg (farmingdale, ny) are not
available. Observations from khpn (white plains, New York and khvn
(new Haven,ct) are being disseminated through backup methods.
All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to
service time is unknown.
short term...precipitable water