Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kokx 232053
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
353 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018
low pressure over northern New England this evening lifts up into
the Canadian Maritimes overnight into Wednesday. High pressure
builds in for the rest of the week, followed by a frontal system
over the weekend. The front will usher in colder air for the
beginning of next week.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
heaviest showers have passed to the east with another batch
moving off the south Jersey coast. The latter of which should
pass to the south and east the next couple of hours, but could
possibly clip sections of eastern Long Island. Cold front just
east of NYC and the lower Hudson Valley will pass far eastern
areas within the next 2 hours.
Upper low and associated surface low continue to deepen while
lifting up into the Canadian Maritimes. Cold advection on the
backside of the system will usher in cooler on gusty west winds
overnight. Lows will remain well above normal, in the lower to
mid 30s, but relatively cooler.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/...
a secondary cold front passes through in the morning. High pressure
will build east from the mid section of the country while low
pressure tracks northeast across the Canadian Maritimes.
Nearly seasonable weather will follow for Wednesday and
Wednesday night with continued cold advection and winds veering
to the northwest. It will remain gusty during the daytime hours up to
about 25 mph, then diminish in the evening.
Highs will be slightly above normal in the upper 30s to lower
40s, with near normal lows ranging from the mid teens inland, to
the lower 20s at the coast.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
the 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) are beginning to come together on a soln for
the weekend frontal sys. Because of this, a blend of the 2 models
was used for temps, with a broad blend of raw model data used for
pops. This breaks down to low chcs for lgt rain Sat aftn, with rain
chcs increasing Sat ngt and likely rain on sun. As the front comes
thru, there could be a quick changeover to snow, primarily away from
the coast, sun ngt. The models however are still not very robust
with pcpn on the back side of the sys. For Mon, the colder air flows
in with a chc for rain and snow shwrs into Mon ngt. Dry thereafter.
Otherwise, high pres builds in this Thu and Fri. Dry wx was fcst as
a result. The superblend was used for temps except for Thu ngt due
to the position of the high. With lgt winds, the fcst there is a
blend of guidance to better capture radiational cooling, a few to
several degrees blw the superblend.
Aviation /20z Tuesday through Sunday/...
a strong cold front will continue to move east across the area into
Where they are not already, ceilings and visibilities will continue
to improve to VFR through late afternoon. While the bulk of the rain
has moved east of the area, another area of precipitation is moving
northeast off the New Jersey coast. This should pass just east of
kjfk but looks to impact kisp and possibly kbdr within the next
hour. A brief reduction to IFR conditions is possible as this area
of rain moves over the terminal.
Flow is generally light in the immediate wake of the front across
the Long Island and Connecticut terminals, around 5 kt. By evening,
flow should increase out of the west, with gusts to around 20 kt
possible at times.
New York Metro enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90
Kjfk taf comments: a brief shower is possible this evening,
otherwise no unscheduled amendments are expected.
Klga taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kewr taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kteb taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Khpn taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kisp taf comments: amendments possible for ceilings/visibilities
associated with showers this evening.
Outlook for 18z Wednesday through Sunday...
Saturday-Sunday...showers possible with S-SW g20kt.
on the heels of a cold front passage, winds may briefly drop
early evening before strengthening again. Small Craft Advisory west-northwest gusts in the
25 to 30 kt range are expected tonight into Wednesday on all
waters. Winds should gradually fall below Small Craft Advisory late Wednesday
into Wednesday night, with ocean seas following suit.
Winds and seas will creep up towards sca lvls on Thu as low
pres deepens over the Atlc. Winds and seas blw sca lvls on Fri,
then SW flow increases over the weekend ahead of a frontal sys,
with sca cond likely Sat and sun on the ocean, and possible
no significant hydrologic issues are anticipated through next
NYC National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for anz330-335-