Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
723 am EDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016
a weak front will cross the region today. High pressure builds in
from the west on Wednesday and moves offshore by Thursday. A weak
cold front approaches the region Thursday night into Friday and
will linger into the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
shortwave axis slides offshore this morning...with deep west-northwest flow
today. At the surface a weak trough will develop and push east
With 850 hpa temps still running in the high teens...deep
mixing...downslope flow...and just some this cirrus filtering
sunshine...expect temps to rise into the lower to mid 90s for much
of the coastal plain. Upper 80s/lower 90s for NW hills. Potential
for a few upper 90s for NYC/New Jersey Metro. Sea breezes should be
limited to late day and immediate south coasts...if at all.
Noticeably lower dewpoints should keep heat indices close to air
temps...94 to 96 for NYC/New Jersey Metro. Heat advisory continues.
The risk for rip current development will be moderate for southeast
Suffolk County beaches, and will become moderate this afternoon as
southerly swells increase to 3 ft and 6 to 7 second period with a
residual long period 1 ft se swell.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday/...
models in good agreement with the region lying between a closed low
over northern Quebec and southeastern US ridging. Zonal upper
flow to start will back to the SW ahead of developing Great Lakes
At the surface...weak high pressure builds into the region Wed and
moves offshore Thu.
Hot conditions will continue for midweek with highs generally in
the lower to mid 90s away from the south coasts. Based on warming
aloft and deep mixing...could see a few upper 90s across NE New Jersey
Metro on Thu. Afternoon sea breeze development should keep south
coastal areas in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days. Dewpoints
should remain in the lower 60s...perhaps upper 50s during peak
heating Wed...keeping heat indices at air temps. At this
point it is likely heat indices stay below 95 degrees on Wed. A
gradual moderation in dewpoints is likely Thu with return
flow...which should have heat indices returning to the mid to
upper 90s for NYC/New Jersey Metro and lower hud.
Otherwise...relatively comfortable temps tonight and Wed
night...particularly outside the urban centers. Radiational cooling
should allow for temps to drop into the lower to mid 60s across far
outlying areas...to mid 70s for NYC/NJ Metro.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
a weak cold front is forecast to move across the area from the
northwest Thursday night into Friday. There is a chance of showers
and thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday as the system crosses
the area, with the possibility of some heavy rain depending on the
The front may settle nearby through the weekend, setting the stage
for unsettled weather with chances for showers and thunderstorms
through Sunday. High pressure builds into the area Monday.
Temperatures will be near normal Thursday night through Monday.
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
high pressure builds in from the west.
Winds turning to the right of 310 mag as a weak trough passes
through the terminals. Wind speeds should average 8-12 knots at knyc
terminals, less than 10 knots elsewhere.
By afternoon, winds back to the left of 310 mag, to more of a
west-SW flow, at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots
possible at kjfk late in the afternoon.
Winds become north early this evening and lower to less than 10 knots.
Light/vrb winds likely after midnight tonight.
... Metro enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90
Kjfk taf comments: winds 320-340 mag this morning, backing to
250-270 mag this afternoon. Gusts may be a few knots higher than
forecast this afternoon.
Klga taf comments: winds 330-350 mag this morning, backing to
280-300 mag this afternoon. Gusts may be a few knots higher than
forecast this afternoon.
Kewr taf comments: winds 300-320 mag this morning, backing to
290-310 mag this afternoon. Gusts may be a few knots higher than
forecast this afternoon.
The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.
Kteb taf comments: no unscheduled amds expected.
Khpn taf comments: no unscheduled amds expected.
Kisp taf comments: no unscheduled amds expected.
Outlook for 12z Wednesday through Saturday...
Wednesday-early Thursday afternoon...VFR.
Mid-late Thursday afternoon-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
offshore nearshore gusts to around 20 kt this afternoon. Sub sca
conditions expected today through Thursday with weak pressure
gradient as high pressure builds in and then offshore.
Below Small Craft Advisory conditions expected across the area
waters Friday through the weekend with a weak pressure gradient.
hot and dry conditions today...with westerly wind gusts 20 to 25
mph and min rh values in the 30s in the afternoon. With rainfall
amounts varying from around a tenth of an inches to over 2 inches
yesterday...a locally elevated threat for brush fire spread exists
for areas that received little rainfall. Most susceptible areas
would likely be northeastern New Jersey.
Hot and dry conditions continue on Wednesday with min rh values
in the 30s. Winds expected to be lighter than today.
dry conditions through midweek.
There is the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms,
across the area late Thursday through the weekend.
New York...heat advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for