Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
629 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017
for 00z aviation discussion.
Cool conditions in place across the mid state this afternoon. The
sfc high over the Great Lakes will move east and reach the mid
Atlantic states by Thursday afternoon. Prior to that time, a colder
night is in store for tonight. We should see lows by morning in the
35 to 40 degree range for most areas, except for lower 40s far
southwest. Since the sfc high will remain off to our north, a
northerly fetch will continue and this will prevent low temps from
falling lower toward freezing. Thus, no need for a freeze warning.
Warming trend begins on Thursday as a southerly wind component
returns. Highs will reach well into the 60s, and then into the lower
70s on Friday.
Next system of interest will occur on Saturday. The associated sfc
low, however, will become disorganized and take a northerly track.
Still though, enough prefrontal forcing and ul energy will exist so
that one half inch avg rainfall amounts remain possible. As for
severe potential, linear forcing and instability/shear parameters
match up favorably in the afternoon. Cannot rule out strong to
severe tstm potential.
Through the rest of the extended period, conditions remain
unsettled. Another storm system will move through on Monday with an
additional chance of strong to severe tstms. It will be cooler on
tues with the possibility of Post frontal shower activity.
00z taf discussion.
Mostly clear skies will give way to increasing clouds overnight,
with only mid-level ceilings expected. Winds will gradually shift to
the south-southeast after daybreak.