Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 272323
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
623 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017
for 00z aviation discussion.
Current analysis shows surface high centered over central Indiana
with light northerly winds, some scattered fair weather cumulus,
and temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80. The surface high will
slide east of our area by tomorrow morning allowing southerly
flow to return. Temperatures will be near normal values by
tomorrow afternoon. Dew points will climb as well and be in the
mid to upper 60s by Thursday. Enough instability and deep enough
moisture will be in place on Thursday for some isolated
thunderstorms especially over the plateau. Thunderstorms will be a
little more widespread on Friday, but still be diurnal in nature.
A more organized rain threat will be here for the weekend. GFS
shows a series of shortwaves will traverse the area on Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday. Right now Saturday appears to be the best
chance. Euro is not as aggressive with the shortwaves on Sunday
and Monday. GFS shows enough instability and shear with the
shortwaves to believe a few strong storms may be possible over the
Temperatures will be around normal from Thursday through the end
of the forecast. Diurnal ranges will decrease as dew points climb
with lows by Saturday morning ranging from the upper 60s on the
plateau and low 70s elsewhere.
There is still a bit of variability between the long range models
for Independence day. At this point, can't rule out some scattered
thunderstorms with highs near normal.
00z taf discussion.
Ckv/bna/mqy/csv...diurnal driven cumulus should dissipate 28/02z.
Although some passing mid to high level cloudiness along with
a few diurnally driven cumulus mainly after 28/15z could be possible,
impacts to terminals will be so marginal that mention at terminals
unneeded. Light sfc winds will shift from northwest-NE to S as sfc ridging
influences move eastward thru 28/24z.