Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 220840
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
240 am CST Wed Nov 22 2017
Surface observations this morning show a cold front is moving
through the mid state with temperatures in the 30s to low 40s and
north to northwest winds. After highs around 60 on Tuesday, temps
will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler today thanks to the cold
front and likely won't reach 50 in most areas. Surface high
pressure ridge behind the front will settle over the area tonight,
and with mostly clear skies and light to calm winds a chilly
Turkey day morning in the 20s is expected. Thankfully (pun
intended) temperatures will warm back up into the 50s by
Thanksgiving afternoon. Could also see some fog on area lakes and
rivers tomorrow morning due to the cold temperatures and still
warm water, but too uncertain on how widespread it will be to
include in forecast attm.
No precipitation is expected through Tuesday of next week as dry
northwest flow remains in place aloft. Kept forecast generally
near the superblend of all guidance which still appears
reasonable, although it is notable different from the GFS MOS
guidance especially next week. Warmer and above normal
temperatures are anticipated on Friday and Saturday ahead of the
next cold front that will move across middle Tennessee on Saturday
night, with a return to near or even below normal temps for
Sunday and Monday behind the front. By Tuesday, flow aloft will
become more southwesterly as a deep trough develops in the western
conus, allowing for a significant warmup into midweek. Although
timing differences continue, 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf) generally agree on
yet another cold front bringing a decent chance for rain on
Wednesday of next week.
06z taf discussion.
At 05z, a dry cold front was pushing across northwestern middle
Tennessee and should reach the Nashville Metro area by 0630z and
the csv area by 09z. When the front passes, expect north surface
winds to increase to 10 to 13 kts, and become a bit gusty between
13z and 21z, before diminishing to less than 5 kts after 00z/23.
Expect some MVFR ceilings at csv late tonight and early
Wednesday, due to a band of stratocumulus accompanying the cold
front. However, by 15z believe clouds will scatter, with flight
conditions returning to VFR.
At the remaining three terminals, expect VFR conditions to prevail
throughout the forecast period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 50 28 53 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Clarksville 46 27 51 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Crossville 47 26 52 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Columbia 49 27 53 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 49 25 53 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waverly 47 27 53 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 0