Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 290714
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
214 am CDT Mon may 29 2017
Quiet day yesterday across the mid state as convection just could
not get going in the afternoon. Some convection has developed
south of the area and looks to spill over northward to impact
southern and eastern zones today. Have slight chance and chance
pops mainly south of I-40 and on the southern half of the plateau
as the cold front becomes more of a stationary boundary as it
stalls a bit today. Some instability and shear remain for the far
south, so it will be possible for some storms to gain a bit of
strength this afternoon and early evening. As another lobe of the
upper closed low over the Great Lakes swings eastward, the front
should move out of the area and dry conditions will briefly return
to the mid state overnight tonight.
Monday night into Tuesday will be mainly dry, but chances for
showers and thunderstorms will return mainly for the afternoon on
Tuesday. Models do not completely agree on location and timing as
the upper trough is still well to the north, but enough of a
chance exists to toss in mention for the later part of Tuesday.
Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday looks to be dry for the most part
before another round of precip chances moves in on Wednesday.
Another lobe of the upper closed low will swing a bit further
south, and may be enough to kick off a few daytime showers and
thunderstorms over the area. Keeping with the trend of the
previous few days, the evening and overnight hours will again be
dry into Thursday morning.
On Thursday, the upper low north of the region will progress
eastward finally, but chances for precip will increase later on
Thursday as a shortwave trough crosses through the Southern Plains
towards the southeast US. This will be the start of a series of
shortwaves that will bring showers and thunderstorms to the mid
state through next weekend. Friday through early Monday morning
looks to be pretty wet with the active pattern, and surprisingly
models have very similar upper level and quantitative precipitation forecast solutions. Not
confident enough for likely pops out this far, but have high
chance pops in for Friday through Sunday night for now. Models
begin to diverge after next weekend, so will be interesting to see
if this active pattern sticks around or see if some drier weather
moves in to the region.
06z taf discussion.
High level moisture moving in from the SW ahead of srn MS River
Valley region shwr/tstm complex that models show weakening but
eventually moving across SW portions of mid state 29/09z-30/06z.
Some MVFR fog possible ckv/bna 29/07z-29/14z. Best potential MVFR
to IFR fog csv per best low level moisture pooling potential.
After 29/14z, sct cu ckv/bna to sct/bkn cu csv will prevail per
weak sfc ridging/zonal flow aloft keeping ckv/bna dry, but can not
rule out at least vcsh csv 29/18z-30/02z per proximity to area of
shwrs/tstms. Sfc winds will generally be westerly with Max
sustained between 5-7kts thru 30/06z.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 84 64 84 62 83 / 10 0 20 10 40
Clarksville 83 61 81 60 81 / 0 0 10 10 30
Crossville 75 59 76 57 76 / 20 10 30 10 40
Columbia 82 63 82 61 82 / 20 10 30 20 30
Lawrenceburg 82 63 82 61 82 / 30 10 30 20 40
Waverly 82 61 82 61 81 / 0 0 20 10 30