Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 260702
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
202 am CDT Mon Jun 26 2017
Clear and quiet at forecast time. Temperatures have fallen off into
the upper 50s and low 60s and by the time everything is said and
done this morning, everybody should be in the 50s -- almost 10
degrees below normal for June -- and we're not done with this
unseasonably cool weather just yet.
Mid-level clouds are going to build into the state this morning as
the first of two waves starts to affect middle Tennessee over the next 24
to 36 hours. This first one will keep afternoon highs in the upper
70s (plateau) and low 80s (elsewhere). The second wave, due in here
tonight, will actually provide middle Tennessee with some rain. I've been
scouring the forecast soundings and I just don't see any reason to
add in thunder, so it does look like just rain. These showers
should start moving into the northwest around midnight tonight and wane
through the morning hours. I don't think everyone will see rain and
those that do, will likely see less than a quarter of an inch.
Rains should end for everyone before noon on Tuesday and skies
should begin to clear from north to south in the afternoon. Will
run a little above guidance for tonight lows and below guidance
for tuesday's highs, though tuesday's highs are going to greatly
depend on how quickly the sun makes its return.
The surface ridge behind Tuesday morning's rain will enter and exit
the region quickly and by Wednesday afternoon, we'll be in a
southerly return flow. This will bring temperatures back near
normal starting Wednesday and also bring the humidity back to the
air, so enjoy the drier air for the next couple of days because
Summer is going to return soon.
Rain chances start to increase Thursday, albeit only a 15 pop for
Thursday. Better chances start Friday and will likely last through
the weekend as we begin a rather unsettled weather pattern. I'm
still only going to carry a 40-50 pop each day for scattered showers
and thunderstorms. If I had to pick a day I thought would have the
best coverage, right now, I would say Sunday as it looks to be the
only day with some synoptic help in the way of a shortwave trough,
but my confidence is low on it at this time. Mid to upper 80s look
to be the story for temperatures right through this time next
06z taf discussion.
Broad upper troughing will be in place through the taf period.
Initially, skies will be mostly clear. However, a weak series of
mid level impulses will bring some mid level cloudiness to the taf
areas aft 12z-15z.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 83 61 82 58 88 / 0 30 10 0 0
Clarksville 79 59 80 57 85 / 0 30 10 0 0
Crossville 77 54 74 52 79 / 0 20 20 0 0
Columbia 82 59 82 57 86 / 0 30 10 0 0
Lawrenceburg 82 58 81 57 86 / 0 20 20 0 0
Waverly 80 59 81 58 87 / 0 30 10 0 0