Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kohx 110853 
afdohx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
253 am CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Discussion...

A chilly pattern will continue through this work week with a
strong ridge along the West Coast and a trough over the east. At
least a couple of disturbances will dig into the eastern trough
with reinforcing shots of cold air, along with brief chances for
light precipitation.

Early this morning, skies were clear. Temperatures were not
as cold as 24 hours ago, but there was a lot of variability, from
the mid 20s to mid 30s. For today, you can expect mostly sunny
skies with southwest winds bringing milder air. Highs will reach
the 50s. Like yesterday, southwest winds will be a little breezy
at times, with some afternoon gusts in the 15-20 mph range.

Tonight into Tuesday, a fairly strong disturbance will dive into
the longwave trough, bringing another shot of cold air along with
some light precipitation. For most of mid TN, this will be a few
passing flurries around daybreak Tuesday, but the upper Cumberland
is expected to have snow showers. Most of the upper Cumberland
and plateau will have a dusting to one half inch, but the favored
upslope areas from Jamestown to Monterey could have up to 1 inch.
It looks like most of that will happen between 5 am CST and 10 am
CST Tuesday. Temperatures across the mid state will hang in the
30s for much of the day Tuesday, and a northwest wind will keep
wind chills mostly in the 20s.

Tuesday night will be very cold under surface high pressure.
Temperatures will bottom out a few degrees either side of 20.
Wednesday will be sunny with temperatures recovering only into the
40s.

The next disturbance will move through early Thursday, looking
mainly dry. Then another stronger wave will come through Thursday
night and Friday with scattered flurries, and maybe another round
of plateau snow showers.

The longwave pattern is expected to deamplify this weekend and
into next week. This will bring at least a temporary easing of the
chilly pattern. Highs may reach 60+ early next week.

&&

Aviation...
06z taf discussion.

VFR. Clear skies expected this taf period with light southwest
winds tonight increasing during the day on Monday. At the end of
the current taf period, a cold front will bring increasing clouds
and a switch to northwest winds.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 58 35 39 23 45 / 0 10 10 0 0
Clarksville 57 33 38 21 44 / 0 10 0 0 0
Crossville 52 31 34 19 38 / 0 30 30 0 0
Columbia 58 34 40 22 46 / 0 10 10 0 0
Lawrenceburg 57 34 41 23 45 / 0 10 10 0 0
Waverly 58 34 38 23 45 / 0 10 0 0 0

&&

Ohx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations